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Berks Winter Cast

Blog Archive 10/29- 11/26

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Updated 11/26 1:00pm
 
Thought I'd do a quick update as to what will be occuring later this week with the arctic front... Models really have been all over the damn place but I'm pretty confident now that we will get that wave of low pressue that rides along the front from northern AL to southeast NE... The map above tries to show what my thinking is for what will happen... as the low rides up it will stregthen and the areas on the map that are green will stay rain til the precip ends for the light blue its a rain to wintry precip solution this should extend all the way into the I-95 cities... Now the dashed grey lines indicate the area that I feel once you are west of have the best shot at accumulating snow... This is basically once you're 60-70 miles NW of I-95 cities... best chances are further north and west you go of course... I know no modeling shows the track I've outlines its actually further west but as the front comes out of the Rockies I think we'll see a shift in the track further east...  Will there be enough in the Berks Region to give the storm a name... (2"+) that is a very very tough call at this point and I will wait on that til I am more confident, I would say chances are low but I think we will definetly get to see wintry precip for the first time this winter... now in last nights post which you can see below this one I started to consider the possibilities that there will be a storm once in the Dec 6-9th time frame... NAO going negative as well as the AO and a PNA that is going possitive in this stormy pattern we are it is just too easy for something to happen and I don't think these models have a handle on anything but I believe that threat is till there.
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Updated: 11/26 1:00am
 
I feel a lil better so I thought I'd post a bit... I'm still stoked that we will see some winter precip at the end of the week but I just don't know exactly how much yet... Its going to be close... will the precip be done by the time the cold gets in or do we get an 1-3"... still too far out... But I did want to post about the type of pattern we're getting into and I decided to show that above... Its a classic set up for a storm once that NAO starts to turn around after going negative... I might have this pegged wrong maybe the bigger storm is not this week maybe its next week in the 5th-8th time frame.... I still think we get winter preicp but I am growing more excited about the prospects of a bigger storm down the road... Probablt won't be posting later today so I'll see you all on Monday hopefully with more answers... 
 
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UPDATED 11/25 12:45p-
 
Not a long post today as I am feeling under the weather... but I wanted to show the 0Z run of the EURO yesterday as it was showing what my thinking is for next week... I'm starting to back down off the idea that we get a massive Noreaaster things aren't lining up right for that but... Instead rather the front comes through with rain and a little wave of low pressure forms along the front and energizes precip after the front comes through cold air in place and bam the Euro at 00z yesterday shows what I think is going to happen... That is snow my friends... Now newer runs of the EURO have taken it away but its not like nothing is going to happen... I just refuse to believe that... So yes the two options I laid out below are on the table but I'm leaning towards option 2... More to come tomorrow depending how I feel
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UPDATED: 11/23 12:00pm
 
I'm really starting to see the snow threat next week as a real possibility... I've laid out two possibilities above of how it happens... But as I've been saying along the Lakes Cutter is key the through will come south and east and give us a decent cold shot and then we get snow... and here is how... Option 1... As has been the theme this whole fall and with this pattern a storm will form as the through hits the coast, Noreaster come up the coast not out to sea... nothing has gone out to sea in months... If this happens as option 1 watch for explosive development and heavy snow but it will be on a small scale in terms of size... A situation like last Feb's storm in terms of overall size probably not as intense... but someone would prbably see a 10" type snowfall... Now if cyclogenisis does not occur (still don't know why it wouldn't) then OPTION 2 is possible as well where a short wave rides along the arctic front that has just came though this would be a more widespread snowfall but on a lighter scale 6" type stretching from Missouri to New England... In this situation it would be a rain to snow event for I-95 cities but still a good shot at first snowfall
 
Again I don't see why option 1 won't happen though no reason for the theme to change... I'm a big believer in sticking with and following the patteren... I also do not care what the models show the EURO will try and show a non storm situation but this comes from a physics error back west... the GFS will show it out to sea (when it shows it) just like every other storm was out to sea this fall as well... I'm getting the letter "A" warmed up... don't be too bored with this pattern it really shows so much potential for a great winter... one that I believe will get started next weekend... I'm still not forecasting the storm but the threat really is growing... Have a happy turkey day folks...
 
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HEY JUST WANTED TO MENTION... CHECK OUT THE HISTORICAL ARCHIVE I RE-DID 96' AND 03'S STORMS WITH MORE DETAIL...
 
 
UPDATED 11/21 8:00pm
 
WET THANKSGIVING LOOKS MORE LIKELY... STORM THREAT NEXT WEEK, FIRST SNOW ???
 
Storm has speeded up a bit more and modeling supports this as well so Thanksgiving most likey will be rainy (but light)... Originally thought it would hold off til friday but no such luck.  Warmer period does come then and all eyes turn to next week... 00z run of the GFS was all over this bad boy for Friday of next week...
 
IPB Image
 
Now thats pretty damn nice but it might be very much exagerated... the runs since then have pushed very far out to sea... Like Bermuda far... but we can't even really talk about any of this until we see where my lakes cutter goes... we'll have a better feel for this possible event after this weeked and trust me I'm all over it... The NAO is gonna go back negative and the PNA will be negative as well (96 had this set up)... Cold definetly looks to be there its just a question of where does everything set up and its way to early to talk about that... This weekend will give answers my friends...  Until then I hope everone has a very happy holiday I will not be posting tomorrow but will try on Thanksgiving (no promsiss though)... I will be watching the situation... but let me make clear next week is a threat, but at this point it is just a threat... no more no less... 18z GFS run does not change that
 
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STORM WILL ARRIVE AFTER COLD DEPARTS... COULD MAKE FOR WET BLACK FRIDAY
 
Updated: 11/20 9:00pm
 
For all those who are frustrated about now snow... please be patient, good things come to those who... In fact things look good for late next week for at least a shot of winter preicip one should cut to the lakes and the next one could be up the east coast but we will have to see... I'll post more on that subject as the week progresses.... Also that would speed up the time table I was looking at for the December Outlook... we might get to that colder look at mid DEC as apposed to late.  But the real locking cold will still probably not be until January begins thats when the "real" winter begins...  As for what will be occurring this week... tonight will be damn cold and as I said over a week ago we may get down to 25... now it looks like 27 but from 6 days out thats not bad... lol.  Look for the cloudiness to continue and things will start to warm up as Thanksgiving approches we'll get back up to the 50's and by Thanksgiving night into friday we will probably have to deal with rain from the coastal low that finally comes north... Imagine if it would have come up now... but no use crying over spilled milk... Anyway I will be posting tomorrow hopefully more about what may come next week... Wed I will probably not post and Thanksgiving it will be a brief post... Anywho enjoy the cold its so crisp and remember this is how we get to snow...
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Updated 11/19 12:11p
 
Here is December's Outlook... We will start to see a shift in the pattern as the Southern Jet will begin to take over as this happens certain things will change in the pattern... the storms that have been blasting the NW will begin to move southward into the SW... warmth that will build in the center of the country will move to the Southeast... Now as for the million dollar question... what about the cold ??  Its been building in NW Canada and Alaska it will start its move and enter the west first before coming east... This could lead to fireworks for the Midwest as they will be at the greatest risk for snowstorms by the end of the month... the cold will also make to the east coast but the parade of storms there will not be so abundant and will calm a bit... there is the possibility of snow at the beginning of this shift in the pattern and also at its end as well once closer to January... But the Midwest is ground zero for storms
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Updated 11/19 12:45am
 
Not a long post as I extremely tired, as though ths weeks potential threat for snow has diminished to nada... but this was expected... We will be colder tomorrow than yesterday and colder monday than tomorrow but that trend won't last long as after Tue temps will be on the rebound I do think that the major warmth will be in the center of our country as apossed to here... But things will be mild Thnaksgiving and there after...  Will post more on this issue tomorrow as well as the December Outlook, I need to go to sleep good night everyone... and remmeber solar winter started today... maybe we should get some space snow for the occasison... lol
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A POSSIBLE STORM???
 
Updated: 11/17 12:00am
 
Is it possible a winter storm to start next week ???  I would say its not going to happen but it is possible... It has happened before but alot of things would have to line up to give us a chance and I just think there is a bit too much to over come... There will be updates on this of course as right now it has alot of my attention... Other than that things will be getting cooler this weekend and actually down right cold by Mon into Tue... Lows near 25 are possible Mon night... yes if the storm would happen it would line up with the cold... In reality though forecasting is very rough at this point in time as computer models are almost worthless... After whatever may happen Mon-Tue it will be warming up as Thanksgiving come and goes the question is for how long  though ???  And what will the beginning of the winter season hold for the month of Decemeber... I will be issuing a monthly outlook for the months of Dec, Jan, Feb and Mar this year... That is a first for this site... December's outlook will be up sometime this weekend most likey on sunday... Winter wise there isn't a whole heck of alot to talk about right now I will be watching the storm rumor and will post on that issue on Saturday or if needed tomorrow... But really I don't think we need to worry too much about this...   The trend does look great for big storms this year, this has been a great fall... we just have to get that cold in place.  And it will come don't worry... remmeber my forecast is banking on this being a late winter and I definetly still feel that this is the case...  I'm looking forward to a great year and I thank you for coming along for the ride... "BRING ON THE SNOW"
 
Updated: 11/13 11:27p
 
Now this is nothing to get super excited about but I do see it as the first time there are flakes in the forecast and we actually have a good shot to get some... I only say this cause of the pattern we are in this is a real possibility now we'll see what the models have tomorrow, but storms reall do like to come up the coast in this pattern and develop stronger than expected... I was laughing at this earlier today but its held strong on the models so it does deserve to be mentioned and yes interupt my vacation which is supposed to be until friday...  Like I said though don't get excited this should not be accumulating snow, some other things would have to come together for that to even be possible but it does deserve watching and I will... But I do think we have a good shot to see some flakes at the very least.... 

Pod Cast With Paul Kocin Interview (VERY INTERESTING) CLICK HERE

I KNOW I SAID I WAS ON VACATION FOR TWO WEEKS BUT I WANT TO POST A LINK TO LISTEN TO PAUL KOCIN TALK ABOUT WINTER FORECASTING AND HIS EXPERIENCES...
 
UPDATED: 11/4 4:00pm
 
Enjoy... I will be posting some other things this weekend as well... It's posted above this text and below the image
 
ALL OUTLOOKS UP ARE FINAL... THE WAITING GAME BEGINS...
 
Updated 11/1 10:20p-
 
The Winter storm intensity threat matrix is up and was alot of fun to do, definetly some trends in the past, so I invite you to look at the forecast at the bottom but don't take it to literal
 
Now as said before daily updated to this blog will start on Fri 11/17, so for the nest two weeks I will not be posting unless something drastic happens, Its my mini vaction or hopefully (for the sake of my forecast) the calm before the storm... LOL... Its just been rough to squeeze everything on this site, the storm threat matriz was just a last minute add on and now I just need a break for a bit til we get this winter rolling... As always if you have any questions feel free to email me as I will be checking that, but like I said barring a snow event of 2" in the nest two weeks I will not be posting... See you guys on 11/17... I will post occasionally on Eastern US WX forum as well...
 
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ANOTHER GREAT SIGN FOR A SNOWY WINTER...
 
updated 10/29 5:00pm
 
The build up of snowcover in Canada recently has been extremely impressive, especially the location as its not too far west as the image shows above if it continues on its southest tradgectory from its current location it will make for a cold flow over snow, so that air will not have a chance to moderate... Great signs all around for an exciting winter
 
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THE THINGS TO LOOK FOR AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR----
 
Updated 10/29 12:50am:
 
What we have to track this time of the year is what trends we see in the storm track, we should start to see a southward migration, which I think we have, now we don't want it to go too far south this early other wise we'll see storms go out to sea all damn winter... What this rain storm showed me this weekend is simple, we have a pattern that can allow phasing for storms from the southern stream into the north and the tracks are inland at this point so they are not too far south this will have to be tracked that much is certain... As it will play a very important part into what will happen this winter.
 
Below is an average snowfall for the winter seasons in the state of PA...