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Berks Winter Cast

Blog Archive 11/26- 12/3

UPDATED 12/3 12:46p-
I've finally given up on this thing coming west, I really wanted to look at the data toda before fully dis-crediting the possibilty.  I've also narrowed up the bands from the call I put out last night, no name will be issued for this storm and I'm glad I stuck to my guns on not issuing it a letter, this was always a threat but one that we were on the outside looking in... Much better chance next week, more on that later today... Enjoy winter its finally arrived
UPDATED: 12/3 2:00am
There it is the 1st call for 12/4-5 , still areas just NW (including Berks) are not out of the woods entirley yet we'll see what tomorrow brings...
Updated 11/30 8:56p
Ok so there is alot going on... Blizzard out to the midwest, and what a beauty it is right now... I am very jealous but we'll get our share this winter that I can guarentee that... The idea was always that this would be a later winter with chances at pre x-mas snow and cold and thats exactly what we have on the platter for the next 10 days... First things first tomorrow and the change in the pattern, thank god I've about had enough of 60 degree + temps.  But we're gonna see a nasty cold front asscoiated with the monster storm that  will usher in the cold pattern.  Severe storms are likely with strong winds of 40 mph and isolated tornados at the tip of lines of t-storms that bow... Then a 10-20 degree temp.
This cold period is courtest of the + PNA
Now as seen this +PNA will not hold and the cold will not lock and by the the 10th a warmer pattern will start to take hold but before that can happen we'll have be under the gun for shots at wintry weather, especially just before the pattern change and I will get to that in a bit, but before that happens we still have a threat on Monday... This thing has been about driving me nuts, first it looked so good then it went to hell and then today the NAM tried to bring around my original idea... I still think its more of a threat for southern NE but it won't be until tomorrow tonight or early Sat that we'll see what's really going to happen so I have to lay out the scenerio at  the very least...
This map still applies
And that is all I will say about this pain in the ass possible event at this time... The greater threat is the storm for the 8-9 just before the pattern change (usually we can get some big storms from such situations)... The Euro has bee all over this with storms on the last 3 runs... The GFS jumped on board for a time today on the 12z and everytime these two models agree you have to pay attention, and there is some very nice potential for this thing... The 18z  took the storm away instead had an out to sea storm on the 7th instead... I doubt that and besides its the 18z, so I take it with a grain of salt...  Below is the 12 z Euro it was the most explosive of all the runs but it was the furthest inland as well with a track over the Delmarva, this scenerio would be a changeover type situation it also was a Miller "A"..
I like the GFS soulution and the earlier EURO runs a wave comes out of the west and closes off and redevelops on the coast (ala a Miller B) now I don't trust Miller b's ever since the Millenium bust but I think its a more likely scenerio... The JMA tho had a storm brewing in the Gulf at 192 hrs so it likes the Miller A scenerio as well.
This will be watched... I will keep you posted
Updated 11/30 2:30am...
Ok I'm in a bit better of a mood now and have finally calmed down... to be honest I'm way too up in the air about Mon's poss. storm to make any calls but I just want to get the ideas out there as to where I think has the best chances are for snow, I didn't say how much snow... but just snow... some people just freak out... well there I go again... no real reason for this post tonight except that I'm bored and I think we'll see today whether this next storm is a "go" or is a "no"... but in the mean time I redrew the threat map for a 2nd time tonight  this one was a bit differnet used a cool program tell me what you think...
(just re-did the map to show the angles better... amazing in this mornings post... I said about posting with some really great people at Eastern... Well there still are great people there but there are some real jerks as well so be careful to anyone that goes there... but there are very nice people as well and it is a great source of info as well)
Updated: 11/29 9:24pm
Like I said not a long post tonight I am beat, but I did want to go over my thinking about the possible storm on Monday the 4th... I feel really good about the fact that there will be a storm and it will be tracking much closer to the coast than is shown today... The ideas of why are posted below with the SE Ridge and still apply... Besides look at the trend this fall everything is closer to the coast than potrayed by the models... Another thing is the explosion of the storms themselves, this thing will pop, not to the degree of what we're seeing out in the Midwest, but it will explode just as the EURO was showing today, but that ridge will not allow an easterly a track I am very confident it wil turn up... and I wouldn't be surprised to see the models start showing this westward trend soon.  One thing I was worried about this morning was "will it be cold enough" after looking at how the models have underplayed cold all fall and the trend in the models themselves has led me to believe it will be cold enought west of the I-95 cities... But all is not well and secure in my thinking of this storm... There is a problem and its one I'm afraid of and I don't have an answer for yet and will likely take some time to find one... That question is "Where does this thing form, and when does it explode ??"  When does that jet enhance the energy on the coast??? Is it off the coast of OBX, if thats the case everyone from DC north gets in on the snow.  If it happens off the coast of the Delmarva... Then its a Trenton and north situation... and if its off NJ's coast then everyone south of NYC gets really screwed... I don't have answers on this yet, but I am looking... Don't get me wrong I really like what I'm seeing right now, I'm just trying to be cautious at this point, we'll see what tomorrow brings... Below is a map of where the threats are...
Updated: 11/29 8:00am
Wow a morning post... rare I know, I haven't had my coffee yet so I do appologize for typos that I know will be present... Last night I laid out the scenerio for what I think may happen with the storm early next week... It has more than just a chance of coming true, but alot of things will need to work out to in our favor... Now I have gotten responses about the cold being marginal for snow, that is a fear... But my thoughts are 1) the model is underplaying the cold as it has all season so far and 2) fresh snow cover to the west will give the cold less of a time to modify... Still there are some things I'd like to see in the models today before I start a hootin and hollerin that this will happen, we're several days out and I would like to see what happens with this current wave first... I will post my thoughts on that later... post will not be as long as last nights tho... now its coffee time and off to my wonderful cubicle for a day of work... I cannont update my site from there but I will be watching what is going and posting in the Eastern US WX forum... My new home... lol If you're not a memeber and want to talk weather wih some really great people... sign up... Link is on the "Links Page"
UPDATED 11/28 10:00pm
Ah we've been here before... Kind of interesting the date huh ??? A storm during the 12/5 time frame on the east coast thats un heard of right ??? Well I'm here to tell you why its likely and that the models are not going whats really going to happen til we are closer to the event
Here is what the EURO is showing...
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Now as for its mistake its two fold, one we have a common model where the EURO loves to leave the trough hanging back to the SW too long... so first we are much more likely to get a kick out here... Two comes the whole deal of the SE ridge... This is one of those rare occasions where rooting for a POSITIVE NAO is a good thing and is the way to go... obviously we have the broad based trough across the US, now usually if we want cold and stormy conditions a negative NAO is the way to go... also it comes in handy if we want storms to track further east as to not be a changeover type situation... But in our current situation we have the fresh cold via the massive front... the NAO in a postive state will argue for a ridge off the SE coast... and that is exactly what is forecast to happen...
This could be a saving grace as in this situation it will make the storm (we hope) come further north than expected... Its very hard for a wave to just go right through the SE ridge... I don't buy that...
So instead of the above situation we have a scenerio where the models will be too far east in their forecasting (besides various common errors with certain models, we also have the complexity of the pattern, which this current wave is showing us)... So rather we may have a situation such as this...
Now I know everyone got real excited today when the DGEX was showing a possible NE snowstorm, that model solution has since changed... But less noise was made for that one particular model that has been great through this whole thing... it had the coastal storm as well today and that my freinds is the Canadian... Trust our hockey loving friends to the north they know what they're talking about eh ?
So it raises some very interesting questions about the east coast next week... And if one remembers back to Dec 5th 2002 a few days before hand a storm was supposed to go out to sea and the positive NAO saved us and brought us a nice present to start winter
Zoomed In for our region:
Now I know alot of people are intererested in what will happen with the 2nd wave... I like the trend further east thats been occuring on the models today I don't think they go back to my original thinking, not that far east but instead will track up the App Mts (or just west)... It shouldn't  be a massive blizzard for Chicago (sorry guys) instead rather it will be a weaker wave trending east... I-95 will probably stay all rain and will dry out before the cold air takes hold ( I would say sorry but you have your chance on monday from whats discussed above.
UPDATED: 11/27 8:00p
Not feeling well at all today and equally I'm disspointed in the way things look for the prospect of snow with the frontal wave this weekend... The Canadian was the only model showing an eastward track everything else is to the lakes... It will not be known for sure of course until Wed when we see the thing actually form... If it forms south and eastward than expected (N TX) we have a chance... But odds are rather bad... Next week I'm looking into the 5-6th fram for a snow event modeling has picked up on this but has it out to sea at this point... I'm rooting for a postive NAO (that was worded correctely) possitive NAO and a negative EPO will make this thing hug the coast... It will need to be watched... sorry no images today I'm in rough shape... See you guys tomorrow 
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UPDATED 11/26 5:40pm
Wow I just can't get enough posting today... Above is the Threat analysis for what I expect in the Month of Dec... May post later on about the threat of snow later tonight... Depends on how bad the eagles game is...