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Berks Winter Cast

Blog Archive 11/22-12/2

Updated 12/2 10:30pm
 
Heavy Ice now occuring... Cold hanging tough some locations even seeing that drop in temps I was worried about, luckily most everyone is off the roads by now, new model runs as seen on the home page take ice up til 3am before the changeover, wow that will be a 10 hour bust in the models remember we were supposed to go above freezing at 5pm today... All in my call for this storm worked out ok, dry air ate up alot of snow I forecasted and the ice took a while to come in full swing, but alas has come to frution... We SHOULD be all rain when you get up tomorrow in the Reading area, northern Berks look out... ice will go all the way to the end as temps are holding there in the upper 20's... this is my last update of the night... We'll look at Wed's possible clipper tomorrow evening on my next update... Goodnight...
 
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Updated 12/2 8:00pm
 
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Heavy Precip will be mving back in soon... sheild filling in, in Central PA... While the cold wedge is holding at the surface, another model bust... we were to be above freezing at 5pm, we're at 30 degrees... this would have been a major ice storm if the precip wouldn't have stayed so far south... This is about t o change but the warmer air should mix to the surface the call here was for freezing at or after midnight but at least major problems if there are any will be accoring late at night... we should be ok for morning comute.
 
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Updated 12/2 2:00pm
 
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Temperature are rising fast in the region but we are still below freezing at 29 but we only have three degrees to go... and the precipitation shield has been very broken up and it looks like at this point that by the team things get together we may be abover freezing... so the threat of major ice storm is now officially canceled but there will be at least minor issues to deal with til we're above freezing...
 
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Updated 12/2 11:35 am
 
DON'T BE FOOLED... REAL PRECIP IS MOVING BACK IN AND WILL BE ICE AT LEAST TO START... THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ICE EVENT IS POSSIBLE...
 
img402/4764/122wintrybalst2cm2.png
 
Cold air is in place, and the battle is on... as the precip moves in temps are currfently running about 27 on the area...with low dewpoints I wouldn't be surprised if the temps drop even a bit more at the onset of precip... then the temps will start rising, very slowly when its sleet... and a touch faster when that warm column gets thicker... but it will be quite the battle to get above 32 degrees I think, lots of places out west that were due to go over to rain never did... and that is my fear for here... as the models are doing a horrible job with how cold this airmass really is...
 
img402/7856/121aamstormyempstr0.png
They currently have the major threat of ice further north, I say we have to see how this plays out yet for areas further south including ourseveles... It will be fun to watch that 32 degree line as we go on thru the day and evening... More precip is about to come in... will update this afternoon as we get more into round two...
 
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Updated 12/1 10:00pm
 
COLD DEFINETLEY IN PLACE FOR OUR LIGHT SNOW TO ICY MIX EVENT FOR SUNDAY... CHANGE TO RAIN STILL UP IN THE AIR
 
img502/7093/121radarhc5.gif
 
Sorry about the lack of updates today was very busy... the status quo remains for what my idea are reguradin the storm did cut back on snow totals a bit due to fear of lack of precip early when it will be all snow... The air out there is very dry and it will take a whle for snow to start reach the ground as can be seen above the snow is already falling over us, its just so dry its evaporating before hitting the ground... we've been placed under a Winter Weather Advisory which indicates the National Weather Service is thinking minor event... I'm still worried about ice being more of an impact than anticipated... WWA state wide except way up north in Carbon and Mornoe Counties which are under a Winter Storm Warning...
 
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Winter Weather Advisory
(Expires: Monday December 3 12:00AM EST)

warren-morris-berks-lehigh-northampton-
                                                      including the cities of...washington...morristown...reading...
                                                      allentown...bethlehem...easton
                                                      937 pm est sat dec 1 2007
                                                      
                                                      ...winter weather advisory remains in effect from 4 am sunday to
                                                      midnight est sunday night...
                                                      
                                                      a winter weather advisory remains in effect from 4 am sunday to
                                                      midnight est sunday night. 
                                                      
                                                      a low pressure system will track across the great lakes sunday
                                                      and then new england monday. a secondary low will develop near
                                                      long island early monday and then combine with the great lakes
                                                      low monday night near cape cod. this deep storm will then slowly
                                                      exit to the northeast monday night and tuesday.
                                                      
                                                      the storm will bring snow to the lehigh valley region eastward to
                                                      morris county new jersey by sunday morning. the snow will
                                                      accumulate 1 to 2 inches before a transition to sleet and
                                                      freezing rain occurs by early sunday evening. the ice will then
                                                      continue into the early overnight with a coating of near one
                                                      quarter inch expected. the mixed precipitation will chance to all
                                                      rain by midnight and then end by sunrise monday. a few lingering
                                                      showers may occur during monday. a gusty winds will develop
                                                      during the day monday with wind gusts over 30 mph expected.
                                                      
                                                      a winter weather advisory means that periods of snow...sleet...or
                                                      freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. be prepared for
                                                      slippery roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while
                                                      driving.
img252/3076/stormimpactsun121xh2.jpg
In terms of impact this should be a minor storm, snowfall wll be light and start in the morning... A change to ice will be forthcoming first to sleet and then to freezing rain as the wamer air keeps coming...
 
img513/663/frezzingrainsleeyso9.png
 
But that dense cold air is going to hang tough at the surface... my fear is someone is going to get a heck of an ice storm out of this and our area is in a prime region for that to take place, but trying to forecast an ice storm is and always be a pain... but the threat
 
img213/2729/icestormsnl6.jpg
 
Models tho are indicating this area to be further north of our region, I'm still banking on the fact that they are underestimating the strength and the tenacity of this cold arctic air mass that setlled thru the region today and the numbers indeed have been busting when looking at the models compared to whats actually happening...
 
img509/661/121freezingrainmapte9.png
 
It does look like a major ice storm tho for the moment has been averterd but these things are strange, and situations like this can be filled with surprises... It still should be a moderate impact tho sunday night before the change to rain...
 
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Then we have to watch for a possible clipper system again light to moderate impact this Wed-Thurs... Winter has settled in for a bit here... but the big storm threat has aluded us so far...
 
img509/4922/12118zgfsclipperdl9.png
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Updated 11/30 10:00pm
 
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WINTRY MESS ON THE WAY... MANY HEADACHES AHEAD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN FORECASTING
 
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Even tho we are closing in on this event alot of questions remain on how everything is going to play out... One thing thats very interesting is that the models have indeed trended colder and are better shoing the cold air damming east of  the Mts. and in our area, I think I've pretty much made clear my view on how that will play out... Its not going to leave without a fight... The GFS is still not showing what I want to see just yet, the NAM on the other hand is showing teh track I want to see but its still starting out to warm in areas as the models seriously still are under estimating the coldness that is really settling in, some of these busts were on teh oder of 6-12 degrees colder than what the models had prog'd... I've out out my first call and am fairly comfortable with it at this juncture... I really see an ice problem here and seriously have my doubts on how far that rain line is going to make it, we'll see what the models will show tomorrow but at this point this is what I'm guessing for the region...
 
Light snow will over spread the area sunday morning prolly around the 6-9 am range... we will get some accumulation of this snow 2" likely maybe up to for in the Reading area... more like an inch or 2 southeast of here... 2 or 3" in the Harrisburg area... 4-5" possible once north of Allentown... This snow will change to sleet and freezing rain in the late afternoon (4-7pm ish) This could be a very prolonged time of mixed precip and an icy mess on Sunday Night, we will probably go to rain after mdnight...
 
img103/1354/1130icestormwk8.png
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Updated 11/29 10:00pm
 
WINTRY MIX ON THE WAY MODEST EVENT BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN POSSIBLE...
 
img152/4203/1129snowfall18znamnt1.png
 
Models vs. Jer on East of the Mts Track... Models 14/Jer 3
 
So the Great Lakes track is true, but as a token we'll still be getting a modest Wintry event before changeover the models are really starting to pick up on the enchrenched cold air courtsey of cold air damming, this cold air will not be pushed out easily and this will lead to a snow and mix period on the front end of the event above was the 18z NAM run for snowfall, by the end of this update I will have included the new 00z NAM coming out as a type... the 18z GFS was really starting to pick up on the CAD and I still think its underdoing how cold and how tenacious that cold may be....
 
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The new 00z NAM as promised... Tend starting for weaker system coming out, colder run... develops coastal quicker... tomorrow model runs should be fun, the NAM is king right now so lets roll with it... the rain line barely makes it north of our area this run...
 
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My first call to come tomorrow... new NAM gets us around 3 inches... with some ice as well
 
img265/6353/1129oozsnowfallmapzd8.png
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Updated 11/28 9:30pm
 
I'm not throwing in the towel on a snowy eastern track ( I won't til tomorrow night) and if anything the 18z GFS ensembles may and I do stress MAY have started to show a southeast trend.  But tonight I'm showing the worst case scenerios, there is alot of cold air that isn't going to be so willing to get out of the way of this storm it will be too well reinforced... the 12z GFS was prolly about as bad as it gets... lets take a look at the 12z GFS ensembles ...
 
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And as I said I still believe the models are overdoing the exiting cold (it will be well intrenched)...
 
Here is the 18z GFS operational run which still shows a period of mixed precip before the change to rain...
 
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The DGEX for its part has shifted as well but I still think its better showing the worst case scenerio (if you like snow)...
 
Here was the morning run...
 
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and the evenings...
 
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Updated 11/27 8:45pm
 
I WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT... DO NOT TRUST MODEL GARBAGE !!!!
 
Not going to upload model images too much tonight, needless to say the fact is that they have switched to a more rainy solution for the Sun-Mon event.  The GFS being the biggest change...
 
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The DGEX still contends that there is snow to be had, and the out of touch Euro although still in the warm and rainy camp trended towards a coastal redevelopment with plenty of snow for New England... My main issue here is that the storm can't just hop on the northern stream and run straight into the Lakes, I'm sorry with a 50/50 low block in place and an cold high in near perfect postion, it just can't go down like that... Its pure atmosoheric physics, The storm should come out slower and around the block and up the east coast, what gets me is the models show the right features in the right places but don't seem to know what to do with the system...
 
img169/7589/112718zgfsfw3.png
 
The 18Z GFS was the biggest joke, by putting so much emphasis on the front runner and then dogging the main storm... (this is a common model error, at least it was in the past)...
 
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The Euro is also showing the same bias's it used to have... We're in that period where the models will play this waffling game, and i've seen it a million times that it ends up going back to its original soultion once 72 hours before the event... So really it won't be til Friday til we get a good handle on this.
 
img408/6859/112718zgfsclipperpt1.png
img104/2391/1127namclippervi0.png
 
The NAM model is showing a strong clipper which would lead to a stronger block, the NAM was a force to be reconked with in terms of accuracy, but it only goes out to 84 hours so we're not in its range and hanging your hat on the 84 NAM and trying to extrapoloate whats to come after is good way to labled a wacko... So I'm not sitting here forecasting a snowstorm, I'm just saying based on the features shown on the models their solutions defy physics, snow lovers should rejoice in that fact and relax as we go through the next few days of model runs, I wouldn't be surprised to see blizzard one run, rain, next and nothing on the one after... The storm is there and the patten supports it, as it supports a storm a few days later before our flip to mild... Now according to the Warminsta Camp (i.e. JB and others) that warmth will be run away mild til Late Feb... I certainly don't buy that, i think the cold somes back by Jan when we'll have our next snowy periods...
 
 
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Updated 11/26 11:38pm
 
00Z GFS UPDATE... Back to snow to mix scenerio...
 
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Updated 11/26 9:00pm
 
GFS IS SHOWING DECENT SNOW EVENT ALL DAY LONG ON ITS MODEL RUNS...
 
 
No mixing or change to rain per the GFS on 3 consecutive runs... 12 z showed a very decent event but I caution all snow lovers its never good to be in the bull's eye 6-7 days out it just usually never works out...
 
img530/7889/112512zgfssnowmaprr5.png
 
But with that said the GFS has been a monster in terms of accuracy lately, blowing all the other models out of the water...
 
The way out of touch recntly EURO (sad how the mighty have fallen)... takes this thing up way to  the west and to the great lakes... needless to say we'd be on the wrong side of the storm and it would be mild with a fair amount of rain, cold arriving just a bit too late... I think this idea is way out of the relm of what I like to call reality, they never should have tinkered with this model a few weeks back all they did was mess it up.
 
img107/2725/1126euro12zgfstd9.png
 
I'm sorry I'm not buying the EURO's trash this model has been showing crap for weeks...
 
I have not one to SNO-CON 3 yet and the reason is simple I'd like to see a lil more model support from other models which have not yet picked up on this, the GFS is alone on island its ensembles are very supportive as well which is encouraging, lets see what the 00z runs bring in, I hope to see trends in the other models if they don't show this to at least be heading towards it...
 
My biggest worry is this thing comes out flat and gets surprssed and everyone north of DC waves bye to a weak storm way to the south
 
I shouldn't say the GFS is on an island cause the DGEX(extended NAM model) shows a massive blizzard as shown below... A snowlover's dream...
img150/4760/1125dgex18zpv9.gif
 
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Updated 11/25 8:00pm
 
BIG RAINSTORM ON THE WAY !!!
 
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PLENTY OF TIME ON THIS ONE, ITS STAYNG ON THE MODELS CONSISTENTLY THOUGH AND THATS A VERY GOOD THING, COLD AIR IS AVAILABLE....
 
 
I'll comment more on this tomorro since its what everyone's mind... It is a very real threat, and plenty far out yet.
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Updated 11/24 11:04pm
 
THE WEEK AT A GLANCE...
 
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Lots of rain coming with the storm via many models...
 
 
NAM:
img228/7495/1124namrsainsxx5.png
 
GFS:
img228/484/1124gfsrainsjx7.png
 
NOGAPS (NAVY):
 
img258/9776/1124nogapsrainqq4.png
 
GGEM (CANADIAN):
img122/5317/1124ggemgr4.png
 
and the EURO:
 
img118/3102/1224eurohg1.png
 
So in the words of Ollie from the BlackUWeather Forecast...
 
"ITS GON RAIN !!!!"
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Updated 11/23 10:16 pm
 
COLD AND AND NOT AS BLUSTERY CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND FOT\R THE REGION.... BUT NO SNOW ON THE HORIZON !!
 
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Next Week we see the pattern relax a bit as a big storm will comeout from out of the SW, no rose collored glasses here it will be a Lakes Cutter and a rain-maker here for sure...
 
img211/5374/1123nextweekbigstormwz3.png
 
GFS shows that this storm will be quite the rainmaker for our area...
 
img218/5480/1123gfsnextwkstormph9.png
 
EURO AGREES...
 
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But both differ on the extent of the Cold to Follow... GFS piles it on, extremely think (prolly too extreme), where as the not so trustworthy anymore EURO isn't as impressed but is looking colder than than it had previous runs... Time Will tell, i think our first snow real threat for snow will be in this cold period in the beginning of December.
 
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Updated 11/22 6:24pm
 
COLD RETURNS... POURING INTO REGION AT THIS MOMENT...
 
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Tomorrow will feel like quite a shock when you get up as aposed to when you woke up today, so bundle up if you're one of those crazy shoppers like my girlfriend.... Cause it will feel really cold for you Black Friday Shoppers...
 
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It will barely feel like freezing all day... High temps right around 40,
 
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Tormorrow Nights actual low of 22 is going to feel downright nasty... Welcome back winter.
 
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And Cold Is Reloading again for next week as well... Almost time to start searching for storms...
 
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thanksgiving 2007
 
Updated 11/22 11:00am
 
Have a Happy Turkey Day all... Nice and warm outside, but again it won't last much colder tomorrow and really this week serves as a micro cosm of what this winter will be alot like wild swings... monday 2 " of snow, Thurs near 70 and Fri back in the freezer... Well enjoy your dinners and time with family... If you didn't see on the front page the Snowfall Computer model out put page has been completed and re-vamped, includes the GFS, NAM, WRF, RUC (total, 12 hour inciments and even 3 hourly snowfall is up) will be really useful in a few weeks... Look for updates tomorrow and over this weekend...