Updated 12/19 11pm
Lots going on so lets just jump right into it... first the idea of a white christmas when you wake up in the morning
is fading fast, but snow lovers don't digress... By x-mas eveing there may be a snow to ice (to rain) storm X-mas night into
the next day... that is of course if you believe the GFS run's from 12 and 18z today.... the also show a big storm that has
been floating in and out of its runs for a few days, later... Here they are with snowfall accumulation (take with
grain of salt)
Now lets jump ship to the EURO which has a very different evolution This is a loop from storm one the day after x-mas through
the following weekend storm... Instead of the GFS ' Lakes Cutter For storm 1, we have a costal situation that goes out to
sea... and for storm 2 instead of raging blizzrad we see another lakes cutter...
Now I for one am more inclined to buy the EURO's solution over the GFS's also be on the look out for the NW trend
that we have seen with all storms this year... Here is why I don't buy what the GFS is selling...
Now my biggest fear is what the EURO is showing now... an out to sea solution... that kicker may just kick the storm
out to sea... bit we shall see models are having issues right now with the regeme changes on the NAO and the PNA... So this
will be a fun week of tracking to be sure...
Glancing at the incoming 00z GFS and one can say wowie, now before everyone gets to excited remember the things I laid
out that can go wrong and keep in mind models having a big problem with this pattern change right now...It's come into line
with the Euro out to sea solution... and I knwo everyone including myslef is banking on teh normal NW trend to save us, while
that could be this case the kickers here are very stron and may just take this think out providing a nice storm for south
of DC... but many a storm in our past have shown this set up before...
I will be updating after the Euro tonight as well... late night but I reall want to see which way the Euro wants to go
with thism its higher resoluton can better handle the many players on the field.
Updated 12/18 11:45pm
Just a quick post tonight, the pattern will be warming up for a few days here, I'm not too concerned about the Fri wave,
that will indeed be waving us by way out to sea to the south... the warm up the definetly is on in front of our lakes cutter
for the Sun-Mon time frame then the fun begins... er... maybe... Today's 12z GFS had a very interesting to look to us snow
startved folk... upper level pattern was very close to spawning a storm on the coast...
This is tricky situation... but the 00z GFS (besides turning the next 14 days into snowfest 07-08... Really takes a huge
step in the right direction if you wan the x-mas storm...
SO that bears some serious watching, as I'm typing this I sorted through the 0z GFS run and lets just say its about as
perfect as a run a snow lover could ask for with storms and rumors of storms all over the place. short waces abound cold air
in place, gets some phasing and BAM you have one hell of a Christmas Week into the New Year...
Not just that but a beautiful NAO going nicely negative could be setting the stage for our heart of winter... Which was
teh idea of my winter forecast cold Dec and early Jan with mojority of snow in this time frame....
Now let me take a step back to the X-mas storm... the DGEX this morning was the first to show a weak wave riding teh
front changing rain to snow... on Christmas Eve...
By the evening run it went gung ho on this thing full force...
Here is a loop of the frontal passage plus the storm that forms on it, precip type and then snowfall in 6
hour inciments, verbatium its 8-13" for eastern PA Cristmas Eve...
Lets see what the Euro looks like and tomorrow's runs of the models... This x-mas thing has a chance... as for snofest
the folllowing days... we'll lets just hope for a non flipping GFS and for some back up from the Euro... Goodninght.
Updated 12/17 11pm
Wow this X-mas stuff really takes up alot of tme...so I will be very brief tonight..added the white christmas chance
page this will be fun to follow, re-doing the storm archive for this year... Has to make on of my categorys to get archived...
so far we have 2 12/14 minor ice event and 12/16 major ice storm... Pattern does look to relax in terms of cold this week,
outside chance of a sytem on friday but should slide out to sea... besides cold will be marginal at best... we then look to
blowtorch til x-mas eve... frontal passage that day and cold and dry for x-mas... after that the pattern looks more interesting.
Updated 12/16 8:30pm
MAJOR ICE STORM IMPACTS AREA... FORECAST VERIFIED FAIRLY WELL MINUS STORM LENGTH
Full updates on this tomorrow I'm very tired today.. Christmas stuff and stress really can get to a person, big storm
delivered but as said here it would be in the form of mixed precipitation, cold air held on through out the entire storm (well
95% of it). Features over 12 hours of freezing rain in some spots, with over an inch of frozen precip there were and
are many problems in Berks County, Infact...
PEMA and Berks County have had to open 3 emergency shelters... one in Sinking Spring, Oley and in Bernville, main problem
being Ice on the trees and the wind... they don't mix to well together at 9 am today there were 30,000 people without power...
and with more gusty winds tonight and tomorrow problems will continue with power... tho we stay dry... Here's the worst
of winds early Monday morning....
Here are some pics from my house today in West Lawn, and we apparently had it good from what I heard from other parts
of the county...also I vistited my parents in Muhlenburg at 4pm and it was horrible there trees down all over the place
and an inch of ice surrounding everything....
This storm did overperform in some areas, chck out the observations from Reading on the front page, crazy temps through
out the storm. More on this tomorrow and where we go from here...
By The Way,,, the countdown is on for Christmas... will it be white ??? Dialy update of the GFS (will be using
12z run of model daily) snowcover for that day.... starts now...
Updated 12/15 2am
Warm Storm Overall Icy Conditions Likely But Warmth And Rain Look To Win the Battle...
Looks like ice situation could be significant before chabge to rain off of newest model runs...
This leads to the changes in my final call...
Warming in the upperlevels will even ruin all snow scenerio to near the Canadian border... Will follow this all tomorrow
and especially late as the storm starts to see how things are setting up lots of nowcasting as the storm comes... I like this
call though... see you tomorrow night...
Penske Bosses: I will try to email you more details at some poin in the afternoon.
Updated 12/13 12:45am
Spent most of the night analizing the data and trying to put out a first guess... well here it is... Some front end snows aroun
3" then massive sleet storm to probably a period of rain and then maybe a crash back to snow like seen with the X-mas 02's
storm this will be hard to nail as to where this band mat be at the end... if it does happen as I think an aditiona 2-5" is
possible at the end and may be very heavy... In fact if you mix last years Vallentines Day storm with the X-mas storm of 02'
I think you will find how this storm plays out will make first call tomorrow... goodnight good luck....
Updated 12/12 8:30pm
I would like to do an update tonight after the 00z Guidence comes in so there will be another update late... probably
Anyway the National Weather Service has put us under a winter storm warning... it reads as follows (and I do have some
arguments with it)
A WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THURSDAY.
THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...READING...
425 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST
WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO
11 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THURSDAY EVENING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW AND SLEET OF 5 TO AS MUCH AS 8 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED, MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A BIT OF
FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER SNOW AND SLEET ARE THE ANTICIPATED PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPES. THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF DURING THURSDAY EVENING.
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW, SLEET, AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.
ANOTHER WINTER STORM
MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
At issue is the amounts forecasted by the NWS... 5-8" seems very high to me and very unlikely even under the coldest
model the NAM... the solution as at most 3" with a fair amount of sleet... I've gone with at most 3-5" amount and
thats including sleet and I'm afraid I might be just a bit too high... A warning is the right call I think more so for
the ice impact though... It will be interesting to see how this plays out
Here again is my final call
Updated 12/11 9pm
I'm not going to go nuts with a long post tonight fillied with alot of loops I'm very tired and I think my basic ideas
are laid out well in the 2nd call for the thurs-fri storm and the threat zones for the monster weekend storm (each had a deistated
page for my calls)...
I am really surprised how cold everything trended over the past 36 hours with the 1st system, so much so that it looks
like we may stay all snow here now in the Reading area and there may even be accumulationg snow down to Philly and knocking
on the door of Baltimore and DC... There will of course be a final update abd call on that storm tomorrow night, teh only
concern I have now is the weakening trend in the models... so I may have to cut back on totals... but 3-5" for a large
area I felt was being conservative enough... we shall see.... It will be quick storm 6-8 hours and then out it goes...
The weekend storm... ah.. what a great day in the model trends as I said last night the Euro needed to stop trending
NW and come back ieast... it did at 12z today... and the GFS came back as well (I'm not worried about the weird 18z
run yet)... Candaian is on board... and the ensebles both Euro and GFS are south and east and colder than thier operational
couterparts... Things are looking great for the area.. I have a feeling things will mix with rain in the I-95 corridor
and possibly into the NW burbs (but this area will ikley see significant snow too) but once 50 miles inland this could
be a blockbuster storm with 15"-20 "amounts once into central PA up into New England. It's all about where that line sets
up... there will be alof wind with this baby too... creating near and actual blizzard conditions in some areas and this area
could include here someone is gonna get dumped on big time... with paralizing snows... More on this tomorrow and my ideas
as well... we need to see what the model trends are and get past this first storm things will cler up later tomorrow
and Thursday about where we're headed this weekend.
Updated 12/10 11pm
This will be an extremely long post... I appologize for not getting it out earlier but there is alot going not just with
the crazy posxsibilty of a huge weekend storm which we'll get to in a moment but all of a sudden the all rain scenerio that
I was talking about for thurday's storm is now looking colder on each run and teh trend is really putting us in the icy mix
corridor and not too far off from a snowy solution as well... thus serving us an appitizer for the main course that is possible
for this weekend... So 1st we'll start with that storm and the 12Z Nam model run which started this cooler trend and has continued...
altho the 12z was snowiest... they've remained wintry for sure...
Here is the 18z run more icy than snowy...
Here is alook at the impact of each with the models localy in Reading... 12z was showing sleet and snow 4-6"... the 18z
just 1" but a major ice event...
Not all the data is on the 00z NAM but it looks similar to an icy scenerio of the 18z run...
Local details are not out but looking at the lines during the height of the storm he rain line looks to make it near
us PA turnpike is the dividing line it seem in frame 2
This looks to be a problem... but the NAM wasn't the only one on this train as the Euro brought a wintry look as well
with its 12z note how the 0 line at 850 (blue line)is just south of us this would imply a snowy or sleety event...
Now we have to go take a look at the GFS in regurds to this 1st event before we get to what everyone wants to talk about...
Now the reslotion isn't as great here... but as you can see the icy scenerio isn't too far away... Now when we take a
look at that the local data ignore the blizzard part as that isn't til later...
So with all that here is teh 1st guess/call for the event...
Again this is stricly for the first event, the one that I originally thought would be all rain... but alas its feinetly
looking colder and the 00z run coming out now of the GFS is colder as well...
Now on to the big show...
The weekend storm... wow what a difference a day makes, yesterday the GFS was driving out a flat wave out to sea, and
as I suggested this was purley model bias, and sure enough the 18z made evryone dreams come true with a Blizzard of 96 redux....
An almost crazy run featuring snowfalls over 15" for a large area...
Locally some places geting 20" +
Now the most recent run of the GFS that just came out is closer to the coast... but still showing a monster winter storm
just with mixing issues for a time before going back to snow...
ala a scenerio like the Euro has been showing... but one thing that is important to keep in mind is that the ensebles
are further south and east than their opertaional runs this is not like last years, VD storm where keep watching a NW trend
in the models to catch up to the ensembles
The euro I was going to post but its getting late and the GFS has cuaght up to its ideas anyway... this will be a fun
week, watch the ensembles (they need to stay south of OP runs) and the north trend needs to stop soon in the OP modes... I'd
like to see some flipping and flopping
Updated 12/9 11pm
The 00z GFS is coming out now but I wanted to make a note about the earlier runs of the non storm supportive GFS even
tho the opperational model is not when you look at the individual member of the Ensembles you will see they are supprtive...
6 of the 11 member (over half) shaded in blue show the storm... 3 shaded in pink show a near miss, leaving only 2 to support
the operational run (top left)... and the operation is still the furthest flat of them all...
This is really a situation where you pay more attention to the ensembles more than the operational... I think the GFS
is really up to its old tricks... Lets see what the 00z run will show
Updated 12/9 7:00pm
THIS WEEKS EVENTS LOOK TO BE TOO FAR NORTH AND JUST TO MILD HERE FOR FROZEN PRECIP MILD PATTERN TO COME... BIG STORM
IN THE OFFING FIRST ??
Sorry for no 2nd post yesterday was very busy... Threat of ice as thought was very low dispite Advisory's being issued
by the NWS which I thought was odd given situation... It does look like the over running situation that will be repeated a
couple times this week should feature all northern tracks will almost just and all rain in these parts,,, It does look like
the flip to a mild pattern though delayed will come after next weekend... at least milder than its been... but first as sometimes
is the case we may have to deal with a storm to get to that point as brough up in many places the threat of next weekend is
very real and there is alot of model support for it the GFS and the EURO agreed on this on friday... the GFS has started flipping
and flopping since, the Euro has now shown it consistant for 2 runs and other foreign model support is coming into range...
and supporting a possible snowstorm for teh region, of course this far its always tough to tell first lets start with the
GFS model ( for the newbies to the site welcome... this is the american model/red 0 degree line would be rain snow line)
Last night's run showed a big hit for the area...
and the snwfall output from it: (at 10:1 ratio)
The 06z, 12z and most recently the 18z GFS are keeping a suprssed track, weaker and out to sea (06 and 12 loops shown)
now it should be noted that this in the past has been a common model erroe with the gfs, blizzard of 96 was to go
out to sea, turned into biggest snowstorm if our history, mar 4-6 2001 was to be out to sea , then close to event a husge
hit for us to end up that the storm was too far north, and big storm ended up being for New England... Presidents Day storm
II in 2003, again was set to be out to sea... Feb 12 06... GFS had storm then shunt it out to sea 6 days out only to bring
it back 2 days before event... and finally last year Valentines Day storm, Friday before hand had storm missing south of DC
not even DC getting a flake, to a big hit on Saturday ended up being a rain storm for I-95 cities and Ice-concrete storm inland
due to north and west track which the Euro had suggested almost whole time... It should be noted that the GFs ensembles
are further north and west and good amount of members show a snow event for the area... Its important to note that the model
even in its operational mode show plenty cold for the area...
Next will go the Euro which historically has done much better with winter storms, now in weeks leading up to 2 weeks
ago this model had some issues with accuracy but has out perfromed the GFS again with winter storms recently...
First up we have last nights 00z run (thick blue line is 850 0 line again rain snow line)
This scenerio shows a snow to rain situation for DC/Philly and up to NY, just inlanded )including here is a big snow
storm... and for almost all of New England...
Now todays 12 z run has shifted a touch further south and east with a track similar to Feb 06 storm... this would be
an I-95 special with modearte snows inland (us)...
Now that we're past the 2 main models lets look at some other models that are currently in range... Last nights Canadian
model shows a big hit for the area... (black line is the rain snow line)
The candadian midday run today doens't go out as far... so we'll see what it says tonight...
The DGEX model which some say I'm cray for using is basically GFS data run by the NAM model (short range model for those
nwebies to the site)... its run this moorning showed a big hit... for DC north
while the most recent run of the DGEX looks more like the runs of supression (out to sea) with the GFS this
is to be expected since its GFS data run thru the NAM and its the 12 z GFS data so I'm not too surprised... The DGEX has preformed
ok recently but its not one of the more accurate models out there... it can sniff out some big storms from time to time...
Just as a side not the image regurding snowfal is teh liquid equivelent so the areas in the light blue are actually area's
that would recieve over 10"
Last up we have another crazy model the JMA (Japanese).. this model can sniff out big storms its bigest coup was finding
the Feb 06 storm... This is an absloutley dream style run for the northeast snowfall amounts would be in excess of 15" for
a large area and southeast New England would be in feet of snow Boston area getting 25" or more... While this is a fantast
run for snow lovers and should be kind of taken with a grain of salt this model performs better than most people say it does
it just exagerates on precip sometimes we shall see..
Do not look for a huge storm as seen above, there is nothing to block this to hang up get the kind of snowfall like
we did with say the blizzard of 96... or even 03 but the patten ironically in many ways is similar to that to the set up of
03 and actually the first presidents day storm in 79'
Here were the reluts of those two storms... for our area... both are in top 10 for region...
THE NAO of course is key and looks like its suportive of the idea of an east coast storm... too negative and we do have
to worry about surpession though....
This is also a situation where teh souteast ridge that is common in La Nina winters and usually cause problems with it
being to warm could and should force the storm up rather than out to sea... this will be an interesting week with lots of
ups and downs... and the GFS will do its lil dance of up and down... and I'm sure we'll see a northern trend I've seen this
way too many times...
How's that for a post long and detailed for once... This could be a very long week....
Update 12/7 9:10am
Longer update later today.... (this evening)
sorry about the non update yesterday was very busy friday nights can be kind of tough to update especially around the
holidays... not that saturday is much better but at least there is more time... models particularly NAM want to hold
on to the cold air at the surface for tomorrow short wave, in so that we have a period of light ice before rain... this concerns
me a touch and espeically if it stays cloudy today... the snow on the ground (doesn't matter how thick) can help the
cold hang on at the surface, the GFS says no ice, but this will bear watching as we head into tomorrow... updates coming later
thsi afternoon have to look for another pug right now... wifes windering why I'm still sitting in front of the PC.
Updated 12/6 9:30pm
Exciting pattern once past this weekend for snow lovers...
First lets start with this weekend, I know alot of forecasts out there are calling for the possibility of snow this weekend,
but I see situation where its similar to last weekends event but lighter, maybe a slight mix and then a rain situation
this will have to be monitored to see if we get the cold air daming, but the scenerio is not as prominent as it was the past
After that the pattern looks very exciting for snow lovers and the target date for the main action looks to be around
the 17th and the 12 Z GFS highlighted that date today as well... with a very decent snowstorm for the Northeast
Of course this is far out and will need to be monitored and will not show 100% as dipicted above... But the EURO...
is also showing a similar situation teh day before hand, mark your calendars snow lovers...
For fun since we're getting close tot hat time as of 12/22 according to the 12z GFS run todat tgis is how
much snow we'll be looking at on the ground, looks like my winter forecast for snowfall areas (being the mason dixon line
and north) doesn't it ??? lol... Good night and good luck more updates all weekend long, Sno-Con maybe going to level
4 soon... This has beed the best start to winter in a long time for many... also look for the storm archive to be updated
this weekend with review of both the 12/2 and 12/5 storm as well...
Updated 12/6 12:30am
Clipper behaves as expected
vs My Call:
Heaviest snowband was closer to PA/MD broder than expected... But for our area it was just as expected with most places
recieving right around an 1"... Both This storm and the 12/2 minor ice storm will be added to this years storm archive
in teh coming days... As the pattern will calm down a bit for me to be able to update the site... As seen there's been some
changes to the website recently and there should be some new features soon as well such as live video forecasts and possibly
audio on some pages as well...
Its late and I'm beat so we'll talk more tomorrow about where we're headed as the mild blowtorch that was to come no
longer looks "endless" and if anything we may be back in the fridge and again in a stormy pattern by mid week next week...
Lots of fun on the horrion folks, and as I've always said "La Nina Winter Start Early", the trick is do they keep going, if
they can thats how you get the winters of 96 and the snwy winters that were La Nina in the 60's and the early part of this
century as well... If not then you get the blowtorch in Jan and maybe a a brief return to winter in Feb...I'm banking and
have forecasted the opposite this year, I see so many parallel to the winter of 95-96 and what I see now, and as said the
key was Nov, we ended up 2.5 below average for the month and much of the east was, usually in La Nina winters where there
was a colder than average Nov... the winters that followed were colder and snowier than average, over 90% of the time (49-50
being the glaring exception that all the mild mongers are quoting)... as I said more on all this tommow, which will be a chilly
day... Its winter my friends and for all that love it, please enjoy it and don't whine about the lack of a big storm, she
will come and I will be on it looking for it... Goodnight or good morning if you see this tomorrow as it is very late tonight...
Look for updates around 8-9 pm trying to get back to the regular update schedule....
Updated 12/4 12:20pm
CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT... AS INDICATED LAST NIGHT, TRACK AND MOUNTAINS KEEP FROM GETTING SIGNIFICANT SNOW...
COATING TO UP TO AN INCH IN SPOTS IS POSSIBLE...
Updated 12/3 7:30pm
Clipper Snows For Wednesday Present A Few Forecasting Problems... Is The Track Or The Mountains Our Worst Enemy ???
Above are the two most recent computer model runs of the GFS and the NAM computer models for snowfall output in total
accumulation, both models have presented problems for snow lovers with thier most recent runs... 1) the GFS has the right
track but doesn't allow for snow (in its most intesnse form) to get past the mountains... this is a problem with clippers
sometimes... it depends on a few things, now the second image, the NAM model brings the precip over the mountains but has
it tracking too far south... This is entirely possible, but the trend of clippers is 9 times out of 10 for them to come more
north than depicted by the models, regurdless we should see light snow, now whether its a coating or 2" is still up in the
air... and really does it matter... it will be a very light event... I will update after the 00z runs later tonight