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Berks Winter Cast

Blog Archive 1/5- 1/15

 
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Updated 1/15 9:15am
 
Rainy monday on tap, wintry precip stays north in New England as previously advertised... And then the pattern change finally comes tomorrow as we do get some true arctic air in the region, this time tho its in no hurry to leave...
 
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In fact I see a stretch that starts tomorrow that could very well go into February where the avgs we see are mid 30's for high and mid teens for lows, quite a reversal from teh earfly part of this month, but the damage in regaurds to the winter forecast is pretty done... temps will bust as even tho I think we have a cold Feb it will not be enought overturn Dec and the beginning of January, remember my temps are from Dec 1- Mar 1, snowfall on the otherhand is first flake to last, and I have not made any changes tgo my very high forecast... still at 125- 150% (38-44") but as alluded to here for the past week it will be a struggle to hit that bottom number but I still think we can, now with that said it is true we will need to start laying down some snow soon, and with the change to cold aftter all this warmth people are starting to feel slighted as the snow will not be there this week, (i do see a shot at something very small on friday tho).  Now I understand why people feel this way, but what I do not like is double talk and I'm starting to see it, people look at the model runs and see its out to sea, and then say thats due to there being no blocking (ie -NAO), "what we want to see" (they say) "is a storm cutting to the lakes on the model as the tendency will be to move it east overtime", then today I see someone complaining about the EURO showing teh 23rd storm cutting to the lakes then blaming it on the lack of blocking... you cannot have it both ways... This time period for me is special for a number of reasosns it was ear-marked as a stormy spot from the get go and his been higlighted over the past few weeks... now to those coplaining about the NAO...
 
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Its not like its not going to be in a good area, god knows its a hell of alot better than where it has been, and besides out farther than that I don't exatcly trust, its been a wild pattern change and my guess is, that the models are still trying to play "catch up" to what is the reality of the situation...
 
I do wnat to be clear tho if we don't get the Jan 22-23 storm at that time it will be nessacary to lower the snowfall forecast for this season, but like I said I still think we get it so we won't worry about a bridge I'm doubting we have to cross..
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Updated 1/14 9:30pm
 
Midwest storm going on, now I know alot of people are upset cause we are on the wrong sideof this one but you have to admit we're finally moving in the right direction if you want to see winter storms and if you're on this site I'd say there is about a 90% chance that is the case.  Anyway Im disspointed about the Eagles and yesterday was devoted to them and last night I was wasted so thats why there was no updates... Tonight is short but I will be updating once possibly twice tomorrow... AM and PM most likely...  As it will be a short working day for me...
 
After this non storm passes by tuesday the cold really comes... true arctic air... And that pattern looks to be the theme for the for-seeable future...
 
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Now by the end of the week we'll need to look to the south at the active southern stream to see if anything wants to turn up the coast but I fear we'll have to deal with... Supression...
 
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After next weekend tho we really should see a period where things might be favorable for one to turn up the coast and as I've highlighted before the 21-23rd really stand out... I know others are looking to this time frame as well...
 
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More tomorrow folks, good night...
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Updated 1/13 12:20am
 
Starting to look like something big is going to happen at the end of this month let me make this clear I think this could be a major hreat period and when looking at the 00z run of the gfs you see 2 storms just explode off the east coast.  With all that warm water out there something is going to happen with the artcic blast and a fighting SE ridge, there is just so many things lining up and the first possible event is on a special date 1/25, and you obviously remember 1/25 2000 "out to sea, out to sea" after a warm beginning to January and there was a storm threat a few days after 1/25 that year that was considereed more of a threat... you can't write this stuff... lol
 
Here is a loop of the two possible events...
 
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Updated 1/12 9:30pm...
 
vicious winter storm gets going in the southern plains, I think god I'm not out there, I like winter storms but no ice storms my buddy lives in Broken Arrow, OK sent me an email that said everything was shutting down for the next 3 days... I warned him when he moved out there, but he said he heard their winters were better as in more mild, he even sold his truck for a mustang... big mistake... for this weekend.
 
Rain will be the story for us, as we get the nice mild flow (not so nice for some tho who want winter) North of I-80 definetly could have some ice problems tho as that cold really will press at the lower levels, maybe monday nigh we see some flakes at the end...
 
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As for our future in regaurds to the winter... things look dry and cold as our change to reverse this warmth is finally upon us after this weekend... And things will feel like winter next week...
 
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Unfortunetly things will be dry, I know its  a shame the cold finally comes and now no storms, well thats not entirely true things will be just a bit too surpressed to the south and east next week, but there are always possibilities and I will be monitoring them...
 
Here is a look at the cold morning on tap for Thursday about a week away according to the GFS...
 
 
After that the EURO showed a nice storm for next weekend which was always marked as a threat period...
 
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We will have a very active southern branch but the fear as was placed in my winter forecast is that we will have to deal with storms being surpressed to the south but storms do have chances to turn the corner...
 
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Updated 1/11 7:21pm
 
 
1st the NWS for our area is getting kind of bullish about possible wintry weather this weekend for certain areas in northern Berks but not in Reading it self, I think they may be wrong as my thinking was you don't hit the wintry precip til the Poconos but we shall see here's the NAM's representation of events...
 
 
Here is the mm5...
 
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The GFS is alil all over the map but is in general agreement from what I've seen in that its all green as in rain (except for any light nonsense that could come thorugh before the storm it self... which is what I think will happen for the area but this will be watched... As this is a very tricky situation as the models just aren't handling anything to well at this pointimg458/9086/11101re8.png
So look for mild and rain unless you are going north of I-78 this weekend... More tomorrow about where we may go in the future...  I want to see how the models handle a possible storm next week... one at the tue time fame the other next weekend.
 
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EDIT 11:40pm
 
THE 0z RUN IS PURE CRAP...
 
Updated 1/10 11:00pm
 
Not a long post tonight...
 
It was nice this morning to see the nice little snow burst  from 9:30-10:30 In the area...
 
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Areas to the east of Reading, tho over in Bucks County had it a bit heavier... here is a zoomed in pic...
 
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We still got a long way to go in regards to meeting the winter forecast, as trace amounts just won't cut it... But in order to get to where we need to be we need to get the cold in place, and as laid out that in earlier posts that is exactly what we'll get next week...
 
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Now some of the models today we're really starting to go to extreme on the amount of cold that is coming especially the 6z run...
 
Here is the GFS run for next wednesday...
 
 
The DGEX is about the same for our area but is dumping eve more cold into the country...
 
 
 
Almost the entire US is going cold and under freezing...
 
 
But thats nothing cause the mother load is coming the week after...
 
 
Now I know all want to know about snow and my first threat that I'm interested in is the 17-18th right, now the models are still showing a surpresssed solution but the 18 z GFS run did bring it closer to the coast than on previous runs I'm not a huge fan of the 18z but I like what it shows (lol).  I'll have to wait up tonight and check out the 0z runs, I will update at that time as well...
 
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Updated 1/9 10:50pm
 
Only saw a few flakes this afternoon as the bulk of the prcip stayed south of the area associated with the Clipper system that came through our area this can be seen in the radar loops today 1 from this morning and another from this evening...
9 am:
 
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7pm:
 
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Now I know alot of people still want to know more about the pattern change and the fact remains that I've laid out the scenerio many times over and all is going according to plan for after this weekend now its just a waiting game... First step of all this is the turn around of the EPO going to negative andit sure is...
 
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Now I haven't talked about the El Nino recently but sure enough the turn around is well under way...
 
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And things are going swimingly with the cross section at the pole warming has not only continued up high but the cooling is stoping now a bit lower... Remember the theory is that when the changes come from higher in teh atmosphere and come down they are loger lasting...
 
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After all is said and done we might end up in a cold blitz for at least a 2 week period possibly a month long, some think even longer, there will be slight warm ups here and there but if the flow is cross polar its going to be quite a turn around... get the NAO to go negative and seasonaly/ climatologicaly speaking we are due for such a change in the near future... Feb could be alot of fun now yesterday I laid out the most extreme "late" winter we ever had in 93-94... now while that is possible I'm thinking we have an even more recent case to look at... in 04-05...
 

Jan 19- 2.7”

Jan 22- 8.5”

Jan 23- 1.5”

Jan 24- .7”

Jan 29- .5”

Jan 30- .9”

 

JAN TOTAL-  14.8”

 

Feb 20- 1.1”

Feb 21- 1.4”

Feb 24- 6”

Feb 28- 3”

 

FEB TOTAL- 11.5”

 

Mar 1- 4.6”

Mar 2- .1”

Mar 8- 1”

Mar 12- .1”

 

 

MARCH TOTAL 5.8

 

Up until this point in the winter we only had recieved trace amounts, and we still ended the season with 35" which is where I'm thinking we will get this year... but the extreme is still possible as well... The NAO just has to go negative and it could be a wild wide thru March... Sorta sounds like my winter forecast is still going to plan eh ???

 

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Updated 1/8 11:40pm
 
Hey folks I know this winter has been tough but we don't have much longer to go, and after this weekend particulary once past the 15 16th its is time for change in a big way... But before that we'll see a clipper slide to our south tomorrow, now I must admit I though this thing would come over top of us abd give us a quick shot of snow... But and this is gard to believe the arctic push will be so strong that it will push the system too far south altho the GFS runs still have us getting a very bit of snow... hey a few flakes to me are fine.
 
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Now after Wed we do warm back up and will have to deal with another mild rainstorm this weekend but I have a feeling its the last that we'll have to deal with for quite a bit..  After that the pattern change I've been tracking for the past 3 weeks is definite, yes thats right take it to the bank it is coming... (not too bad a job on my part either saying it would occur from the 16-21st... Looks like the 16th it will be... And we will flip to this...
 
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and during this time we might have all sorts of good stuff (storm wise)... A period that goes til the end of the month that we will be under the gun... And here is a 1st real shot it will be the Jan 19-22 range...
 
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Pattern we're getting into is similar to the set up we experienced during the 2nd half of winter in 94... Here is a reminder of what that winter brought...
 
Days with snowfall and amounts

JAN

4- 5.1

7 - 0.8
8- 0.8

11- 0.4
12- 5.1

14- 0.4

17- 16.1

25- 7.1

27- 1.2
28- 0.8

TOTAL SNOWFALL 37.8


FEB

8- 5.1
9- 1.2
10- 6.3
11- 7.9
12- 0.4

22- 3.1
23- 5.1

TOTAL SNOWFALL 29.1



MAR

2- 15.0
3- 2.4

18- 3.1

TOTAL SNOWFALL 20.5



Winter total--- 87.4"


SNOWCOVER... (days at or above)

6"- 58 days (Jan 12- Mar 10, yes the entire month of Feb)

12"- 42 days (including a 34 day stretch from Jan 17th- Feb 19th)

18"- 15 days ( Jan 17- 23, 26-31, Feb 8-9)

20"- 4 (Jan 17-20th)
 
Not saying it will break down like that but we will have a very exciting period... That much is sure
 
 
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Updated 1/8 8:50am
 
Quick update today more later, rain will move out in the afternoon today and we do see a change back to wintry like temps tomorrow and into Wed we should also see sine flakes but acc. snow looks very doubtfull at this point... The clipper looks to be weaker than it was looking a few days ago, but I still have my eye on it you can't trust these things til they come out sometimes...
 
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It should just hit the Mts and fall apart tomorrow night...
 
Big changes next week tho, and they are a comin as advertised here for several days last week... and things are looking good on the models and the telleconections (particularly the  EPO) are falling right into line the NAO might later... Now I've show the cross section of the polar vortex a few times and the key has always been warming starts at the top and then if it comes to the surface thats how you get the AO to go negative and give us our Arctic outbreaks... I'm going to show the 2 cross-sections I posted ealier in the month and then todays...
 
1/1:
 
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1/3:
 
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Todays:
 
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Thats a pretty nice progession.. The pattern changes as I said before is almost a lock at this point and we will begin to feel those changes as initially advertised here at the end of last month right around  1/16-1/21, those dates look to be dead on... And with an active southern storm track and the MJO coming into those majical phases we like... Its almost "game on"... Its half time and winter is down about  27-3, can the comeback happen... well you haven't seen me adjust my winter forecast have you ??? I still thikn we'll make 125% of avg... (the 150 is most likely gone tho) so I'm still on 38" for Berks, but I am aware the clock is ticking... so is the time bomb that might go off tho after this pattern flips tho too...
 
See ya later tonight
 
 
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Updated 1/7 9:00 am
 
Whoa its early, I couldn't really sleep humidfier broke and I'm not one that can sleep in dead silience so it was a rough night, anyway... Yesterday was just ridiculous as the above map shows the temps around noon... Just to be clear for a high Reading made it to 69, I saw on some news casts that it said we hit 70, the official number tho is 69... not that the whole degree made any difference...
 
 
I do have to admit I enjoyed the weather yesterday a bit, thats because I don't think we get to be stuck in it for long... I've outlined my beliefs on pattern change many times, you can read back through the the blog archive if you forget the ideas still apply, cooler today, cold shot tue night for Wed, during that time frame clipper could bring snow, models have backed off a bit from what I was seeing Thurs and Fri but I still have my eye on it, we should see flakes tho... Cold Wed begins to moderate and it will be warmer over the weekend, but by the time the weekend ends The pattern change is on and cooler air wil just step down lower and lower over time... This will be a threat period for snowstorms too, once past next weekend...
 
Now speaking of snow I feel like I'm a lil rusty and since we do have a nice tracking costal storm I thought maybe it would be good to get some practice... with a rain storm I know... I must have lost it yesterday cause it was so wargm but in reality its a pretty good track and if it was cold we'd be getting snow so its the same concept, just with liquid this is going to be really hard...
 
First we'll take a look at the models and you will find 2 camps within them on one side (left side of red line below) you have the WRF (top left), NAM (bottom left) and the Candaian (middle bottom) supporting a max precip area for East Central PA and into New England... The WRF to be fair tho does have a 2nd max accross the Delmarva and into southern NJ...  The 2nd camp (right side of red line below) Shows the max of precip going into southern NJ and mostly then out to sea... for this track you have the GFS  (top right) and the UKMET (bottom right) in support...
 
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Now I've never really made a rain call so we'll see how this goes (in other words to expatct too much), but I want something to do before we get into the interesting stuff... So here it is the first ever Berks Rain Cast...
 
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As you can see I went with a blend of the GFS and the ETA and put the max over SE PA and into central NJ, we'll see how this works out tomorrow when the numbers are in... lol
 
After all this tho it will dry out tomorrow afternoon and will be cooler as we cool down thru Wed before coming back up again, but then again I already went over that...
 
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I might post again later tonight, but If I don't  I truly hope I am celebrating an Eagles victory over the G-men...
 
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Updated 1/6 1:00am
 
Thought this was interesting as well... more evidence for that Clipper on Tue night and Wed... that would be about an 1" folks... we shall see...
 
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Updated 1/6 12:26
 
Just thought I'd share the ugly maps from Dec that were just realeased...
 
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Updated 1/5 11:15pm
 
OK this is just getting out of hand and I'm about fed up with it... lol. Tomorrow will see reconds fall and then of course we will have to deal with the rain on sunday and into monday... but that will usher in the first change and a front that will give us a reminder of what season we're really in... 
 
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and then yes it is possible that a clipper that comes down will give us our first measureable snow, (EVEN BEFORE THE REAL PATTERN CHANGE)... That will be watched as the model has really under done the whole trough from the get go here...
 
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In earlier posts I explained where I think we're going latest UKMET outlook is showing it as well
 
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