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Berks Winter Cast

Blog Archive 1/15 - 1/25

Updated 1/25 12:20am
Strong Arctic front ready to pounce on our region, things really could be interesting tomorrow... with temps dropping, winds increasing and snow showers that could really go into quite a tempest, I laid out in my accumulation map what I think the deal is, (my first ever animated snowfall map, wonder if its the 1st ever... lol) But really it has to be there will be a path probably only 20 miles wide or so that gets a nast squall but it will not be known til tomorrow where that area will be but somewhere in SE PA is gonna get it...  And "IT" might be pretty but it can be just as ugly, snowfall in this band could get up to 3 and in some places 4" in a very quick period of time, winds at 30 mph with temps dropping like a rock, oh yeah and throw on the possibility of thunder and lightning... if that isn't winter I don't know what it is... but if you get caught in the possible squall pleas be very carefull it could turn into a dangerous situation rapidly...
Here is a statement from the NWS office...

Special Weather Statement

                           323 PM EST WED JAN 24 2007
                           MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
                           CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
                           323 PM EST WED JAN 24 2007
                                                      WOULD BECOME LOCALLY DANGEROUS.
                                                      PERSONS TRAVELING ON THURSDAY ARE ADVISED TO BE PREPARED FOR
                                                      RAPIDLY CHANGING AND VARIABLE WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS. PLEASE
                                                      FACTOR IN EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION AND LEAVE PLENTY OF
                                                      DISTANCE BETWEEN YOURSELF AND THE VEHICLES AROUND YOU IN THE EVENT
                                                      YOU DRIVE INTO FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW.
                                                      ARCTIC AIR WILL BE STREAMING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY, AND THIS
                                                      PROCESS WILL INTENSIFY AS WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW
                                                      TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
                                                      TEENS NEARLY EVERYWHERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO BELOW ZERO
                                                      ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY AND TO AROUND
                                                      ZERO ELSEWHERE.
                                                      MUNICIPALITIES WHICH HAVE A HIGH NUMBER OF HOMELESS PEOPLE ARE
                                                      ADVISED TO MAKE THE NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO HELP THESE
                                                      INDIVIDUALS. ANYONE THAT HAS TO WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTDOORS THURSDAY
                                                      NIGHT OR FRIDAY SHOULD FIND THEIR WARMEST OUTFITS, SINCE THIS MAY
                                                      VERY WELL MATCH THE COLDEST DAY OF LAST WINTER. WEAR MULTIPLE LAYERS
                                                      OF CLOTHING AND DO NOT FORGET HATS, SCARVES AND GLOVES. WINDS ON
                                                      FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GUST AS STRONG AS 35 TO 40 MPH.
                                                      FINALLY, PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR PETS SHOULD SEE TO IT THAT THEY HAVE,
                                                      AT A MINIMUM, A STURDY AND WELL-INSULATED SHELTER FROM THE WIND AND
                                                      COLD AND ACCESS TO UNFROZEN WATER. THE MOST HUMANE THING TO DO IS TO
                                                      BRING THEM INDOORS.
                                                      WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
                                                      MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY COLDER. A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
                                                      WEEKEND, BUT THE OVERALL COLD WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT LEAVING US
                                                      ANYTIME SOON.
                                                      with all that out of the way tomorrow night we can count 
on another thing soming our way C-O-L-D... And this will
the extreme kind
                                                      that everyone does not like the kind that just 
rattles your bones....
                           With temps
                                                      aling through the day on friday, 
lows getting to near
                           10, and real feel temps around negative
                                                      10 with 
those gusty winds. 
Now with all
                                                      this cold alot have people want to know why we're not getting storm, 
earlier in the winter it was
                           due to it not
                                                      being cold enough, whats the problem 
now we got the cold right
WRONG... The pattern right now is cold which is good, but too much of a good thing can be bad and that goes for cold too... now I know everyone is going to think of the old saying "its too cold for snow" some people will believe me others who know better will laugh at me cause they know that statement is false and by it self it is... But whats behind the saying is true and I'll show you why...
So I'll play it all out for ya... Its like a broken record right now...
Its a great pattern just a day late and a dollar short... now how do we fix things well next week our trough is going to dig back further west and spread out, on eof the keys to this tho is that the Ridge in the west will start to be under cut and thats how the fun begins...
And this what we might have setting up that week ending on the east coast at the Friday 2/2 time frame...
So just try and hold on a bit longer there will be a snowstorm, just have faith...
Updated 1/24 9pm
longer update coming later tonight...
 The models really do have a hard time with how much precip these artic fronts can have with them, the atmosphere will be going through an abrupt change and squall activity is not only possible but is also likely the models have shown since yesterday, that a band of snow 1-2" would make it all the way to the coast, this band has jumpped around all over the place from run to run, having it in the Pocono's into NYC and other runs pushing it through south central PA into Delaware, there is no rhyme or reason to the changes in the run's in regaurds to what model its coming from... So more or less its a crap shoot but within the area that gets these squalls there will be rapid snowfall rates and it will not surprise me for somone to see 3" fairly quick time period, some places may max out at 4"... Winds will be fierce (20-30mph) so even tho it could be a quick and a fairly localized situation it can also be a dangerous one for those spots... For the places that don't see this band go through... There still will be light snow to be had on the order of a coating to an inch.
Updated 1/24 9 am
Just a quick update this morning, the southward trend of the models has continued so now it would be more of a south central PA to Delmarva event than a SE PA into southern NJ... This event will be a pain as show in the models the band of snow may be only 60 miles wide and the heaviest snow (which I still think can have 3") will only be 30 miles wide or so... The normal correction this year has been for things to come a touch north than expected so I will leave my highlighted area in my map from last night the same on the north side but the bands on the south side do need to be extended as the models have been consisitant on this more later tonight...
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Updated 1/23 7:50pm
Writing may be on the wall in reguards to the snowfall forecast for this winter, I won't go down with a sinking ship but I din't want to panic too early as others were... But I made a decision that if no signifcant storm came by the end of this week then it would be time to bring down the amounts... and I am as the rest of this week will be cold but only light event is possible and I will go over that below... my original forecast for the region was 125-150% of avg (30") so 38-44"... Its time to bring that down cause its not going to happen... But I still think we could have a very active Feb and Mar even and I do think there will be a big storm in there so I'm bringing down to 80-100% avg, still thats alot of snow during a relativley short period... so 24-30"... And I do have relativley high confidenc in that... I think the ball really gets rolling next week in regaurds to a "big" storm... And I will have more on that tomorrow...
Now I know I've made a big deal about what is going to be "real deal" cold coming at the end of this week but something that's pivitol thats  being lost is that there will be a band of snow assoicated with that clipper that brings teh cold air... Someone may get  3" out of it in fact and as you'll see below the computer models today were putting that area right over us or just north and south... (the one to the south tho is the 18z GFS so I do not trust...) well have a look for yourself...
Now one thing to notice is that the 18z runs went it different directions NAM north, GFS south, but both did get stronger..... so I decided just the mesh the whole thing up as for what I am thinking at this moment I like the track of the 12z ETA just thinkit may be stronger...
We'll see where this goes... tomorrow... But the cold really is coming, I think we'll see the big storm threat next week becoming clearer as the weekend comes... I think that threat is for the following weekend...  Well I'm tried and its time for Idol, so I'll catch you all tomorrow...
Updated 1/23 1am
Christ that 00z GFS run was cold, above low temps on this Friday, yes that is single digits here... below the coldest run on a model I've ever seen...
Updated 1/22 10:45pm
What a disaster of a night really it seems I can't get much of anything accomplished, PC problems and then problems with my town home, damn I'm tired thats all I can say... the post tonight was supposed to be long and about where we are going instead it will be short and I will post about imporant stuff tomorrow... That should give you hint about where we are going... "(No Where In A Hurry)... On a side not if you want to see what I look like I now put a picture of myself in the "About Me Page", I plan on doing some work to the archives as well... now that I have this addiction to loop things I can really have some fun with the past... but thats probably a while away... 
As for my brief post about the weather here are snowfall accumulations from the Flizzard of 07 (LOL)...
As for where we are going tonights "event" was more or less a joke altho I don't doubt some areas get another dusting, the radar is having a hard time picking this stuff up cause its so light some areas have some light snow others do not...
One thing that seems to be for sure no one will be having any significan snow this week a shame when the pattern looked so good and it does... One of the main problems tho is the combination of a negative NAO and EPO at the same time... Its just Suppression City until that EPO goes negative and it will soon...
Then do the good times roll in regaurds to snow ??? Or not ??? It is a bit early to tell but some analogs are looking mighty inetersting including just before the "superstorm" 93 so I think once we're in to next week things may get interesting especially things will get interesting once we leave the bitter cold behind... which leads me to the events at the end of this week... can you say cold ???  I hope so or at least "burrrr" cause it will be... Look at the latest run of the NAM... and all I can say is "Dam"...
The cold is coming my friends... Friday will be brutal
Updated 1/22 7:14pm
Gotta love the weather, I really want to talk about where things are going from here but "No" we have to deal with a pesky system coming across from the NW, now above are the observations at 7pm the blue line represents where it is snowing (wide spread) and where it is not... ironically this line is also the same area where precip coming in from the north and west usually have problems making ith through the mountains and sure enough this time that is occuring as well...  Notice particularly at the precip in the north it hits that spot and just falls a part, now all hope is not lost as when you look to the west of our region you do see a bulge coming out, so its obvious to me we may see some precip but it should again be very light maybe the same amount as last night if it holds together, but to my eye it looks like the action is in New England more so than down here... So expect trace amounts again...
Working on more of the now check back in an hour...
Updated 5:10
Not lookoing good for snow lovers, I do see how its possible we get some light freezing rain later but just look at the radar and then look at the observations map... Only new comer of importance to the snow falling list is Lanacaster, PA... Looks like no accumulation folks, this concludes the "nowcast" for this event, baring any major changes, See ya tomorrow altho I may post later tonight just as a lil wrap up, If I do it would be before 11:30pm...
Updated 2:30pm
Its not going well friends... as seen in the above surface loop
A look at where the snow is falling at this hour...
It really is falling a part now, like I had originally froecasted, some areas may get a band of light snow and get a coating... Air is just to dry its not hitting the ground...
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Updated 1/21 12:30pm
From the NWS office in Mount Holly, NJ Our first Winter Weather Advisory of the winter  has been issued and here it is...

Winter Weather Advisory

                                                      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
                                                      1137 AM EST SUN JAN 21 2007
                                                      MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-
                                                      COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-
                                                      INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TRENTON...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...
                                                      CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...HAMMONTON...
                                                      ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...
                                                      READING...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
                                                      1137 AM EST SUN JAN 21 2007
                                                      ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
                                                      6 AM EST MONDAY...
                                                      LOW PRESSURE HEADED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
                                                      WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING AN AREA OF MOISTURE INTO OUR
                                                      REGION TOWARD EVENING AND CONTINUE FOR AWHILE TONIGHT. AS THIS MAIN
                                                      STORM MOVES TOWARD WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT AND WEAKENS,
                                                      ANOTHER STORM MAY FORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND THEN MOVE
                                                      OUT TO SEA.
                                                      SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
                                                      EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
                                                      BECOMES LIGHTER AND STARTS TO END, SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
                                                      EXPECTED TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO AN
                                                      INCH ARE ANTICIPATED, TOPPED BY A THIN COATING OF ICE LATE TONIGHT
                                                      AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
                                                      WHILE UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY, ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE
                                                      WILL MAKE DRIVING MORE DIFFICULT TONIGHT AND FOR THE MONDAY MORNING
                                                      COMMUTE. BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL WHILE DRIVING ON BRIDGES, OVERPASSES
                                                      AND ANY OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
                                                      STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
                                                      OUTLET FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
Updated 10:34am
Quick updates as we're in a quasi winter weather mode... just good practice more or less, now the storm was stronger than expected in the midwest last night so even tho it is dying, odds are that we will see that coating up to 1" but the question is where is that line where the drop off will be ???
The NAM thinks we get that inch and a touch more...
More upadates later... Snow map still apllies...
Updated 5:40pm
Quick Update tonight on my way to a "Beef n Beer" ???  Never heard of it beform but girlfriend says I will have fun... Speaking of Girlfriend, does any other weather nut out there miss theirs ???  This is the first girl that I've even been with that I have felt torn when getting up and leaving her side at 11 pm for the 00z GFS run every night and the then getting up again closer to 2 and leaving her alone to check out the Euro run... but alas, I still do it... Anyway like you care about any of that, what about the weather, "where's my snow Jer??" well for those that want to see snow fall from the sky you don't have to wait too long at all, you'll see flakes over almost all of PA tomorrow as the system taht is coming out looks like it may just hold togther enough to give us a coating, it will be very close... So I re-did my snowfall maps again with a lil more vigor on this one (again confidence is low)
And for a lil closer view on our region here is what I expect, snow will be falling apart but there will be spotty bands of light snow that can make it, it will be similar to Friday morning some areas may only see some flakes, others will get a dusting, coating up to 1" over that is really pushing it... Now once south of PA its more widespread with areas getting 1-2" some luck spot particularly west may get up to 3"... In the Mts of VA and WV 3-4" amounts are a good bet with max at 5"...
Now thats out of the way maybe I can move on to more imporatant questiosn but unfortunetly due to time such issues will be handled tonight later after 12 most likely...
If not it will be incorpprated into tomorrow's post with coverage of our light snow event... I know whoopie (sarcastic) but hey its better than nothing...
Accuweather's Forecast For Tomorrow...
Updated 1/19 11:30pm
This morning it was nice to see a light coating across the ground... and some final flakes still in the air... There was some light accumulation in southeast PA...
Anyway... l I'll get to the almost non-event we're going to have on Sunday night-Monday but before I do the 00z run of the GFS just confimred what I've been thinking for the end of the week next week... Ironically on the January 25, must be something magical about that date... Here is the latest run... My thought tho is if it does happen it could be even stronger...
But before we get to that dreamy scenerio we still have to get sunday-monday out of the way... now this is a royal pain in the neck and to tell you the truth I wish it would just die off so I wouldn't have to guess what it is thats going to happen... There is nothing worse than watching a dying storm and trying to predict whethere it will croak before it gets to you or right on top of you... At this point my thinking is if there is anything remainig of the event it will be south of the Berks area... and mostly south of PA all togther... And might I repeat again whatever does come should be extremely light like earlier today or maybe up to an 1"...
Updated 1/19 12:00am
Sorry for the late post its been a very long week and I'm tired, this weather pattern too is very complicated and I've treid to do my best to be comepletely accurate, I've shown what the models say and what my interpretaion is of what they are showing, I knew tonight/tomorrow's event was a northern New England thing and I hope I've done a good job of explainning that to all out there... my attention has been firmly on the Sun Monday event... first it looked strong and mild, then big and white then a miss, and now a fizzle and truth be told that is the way it looks to me at this time below I laid out another threat assesment map for greater than 3" on Sunday-Monday... But what is interesting to me is whats on the heels of that one, from the get go it has been discussed that a 3rd storm will be a main player and the 12Z EURO was trying to show us that today and I think it has the right idea... I think I'm gonna stay up and check out  what the 00z run might have... the GFS isn't going to be able to handle what is going next week and the other models seem to get the idea that a 3rd storm could come straight up, question is proximity to the coast...
amazing the pattern as some have noted is earily similar to Jan 2000, Jan 25th of that month comes to mind on this one... Here's that threta map for Storm on Mon... Quite fankly I hope we just get an accumulation...
Updated 1/17 11:20pm
Look at those highs today, now thats winter...
Ah not so rushed now, Boy am I glad I didn't jump on the westward trend of the NAM yesterday for Fri's event it looks like it has come to its senses and is going towards the GFS solution so we may end up with nothing but a coating can't be rulled out I would like to see some flakes all this cold and no snow... I know its sad, whats even more sad tho is me getting nagged by everyone about where is the snow, I'm pretty sure I sad this week "suppression" would be the theme and next week would be the "action" time frame... I have been all over the monday event like whit on rice and for a number of runs we were looking at supression then a big hit and then what looked to be a situation where a storm would run up west of the Mts with re development on the coast... Which was the theme I laid out last night, and after we all went to bed the 00z Euro showed a beauty of a storm...
And here was an even bigger storm possible at the end of the week...
Now if the Euro was our best friend early this morning, by afternoon it was a bit depressing to say the least... as it squashes out what was left of our first good storm...
Now we have to take a look at the GFS here and see whats going on according to it.... and what we have seen is surpression and accordning to the new 00z run it takes that concept to the extreme I really don't trust the whole situation and I do not trust the models at all... I was really hyped about this but I have to admit I've been cautious on everything this week for a reason and its worked out I'm not aboutto change now... with that said it seems to me the GFS is in la la land on its latest run, on previous runs it was just over whelmed with cold and didn't know what to do with it... The EURO for its part has its share of problems with energy coming out of the southwest, so what I'm saying at this point is we're basically blind on this for a bit.... I want to see what the 00 z EURO will show but I'm not staying up... Here is what I think the threat is now for the beginning of next week...
Lets see what tomorrow brings..  I think its time to stay away from the GFS for a while tho...
Updated 1/17 8pm
***updating late tonight as well... (12-1am ish)
First thing is first... some sort of call on what will be happening tomorrow with the storm that is going to skim the coast on its way to exploding in development, now this was on that I said would be too far east even when yesterday NAM runs were giving us 3-5" at a time for 3 runs in a row... I'm glad I stuck to my guns as it appers it will be too far east for signifigant snow... now with that sai dit is possible to get a coating up to an inch... So here is the call...
12z of the EURO was surpressed and making many depressed... close your eyes... I'll tell you why its wrong later tonight and where I think the threat zones are for storm #2
Sorry I'm busy until later...
Updated 1/16 11:30pm
This was I was worried about earlier this year when I started up the site again with the excitment I had and the ability increased to do lots more I took it to that next level and now sometimes it gets to take too long for me to post the updates, so I'm going to have to do a better job prioritizing what it is I intend to do on here... Cause I go off making these animations they take me an hour to do and post and then I get into trouble... sorry.. anyway about the weather...
Firstly how bout that warmth last nigh across SE PA... Arctic front slicing through the state, it was just an amazing contrast of Temps...
And Now...
Now the cold is in play so "where's my snow Jer ???" It begins almost imidiately, well I've been very busy cause we have all sorts of drama to deal with first thing is first and that would be a "Storm" this friday, now I said this storm would miss to our east and south today the NAM made things a lil more exciting with this run and snowfall forecast...
Its much closer to the coast, even creating a mixing issue for the I-95 corridor...
Now here is a look at a comparison of the brand new 00 z runs of the GFS and the NAM...
The NAM really wants to get this thing cranking its  abigger wetter, more mild storm than the GFS... But my thinking on this has remained the same it will be a further east solution similar to the GFS what makes this hard is the fact that the NAM has out done the GFS with other storms this winter... It will be watched tomorrow...
But I do want to see this bad boy get cranking regaurdless, cause it blowing up is key to what may happen with next weeks storm... And we see that both models do blow up the storm setting up a nice 50/50 low with a temporary but still negative NAO...
Things get darn cold this weekend with a real codl arctic shot and how long that cold airmass can dig in and stay is key to what happens next week...
Next week is the real deal possibly as we have a great set up for a signifgant storm....
Here is what I think we'll be looking at....
After that the pattern stays active and we'll have to be on the look out for an end of week storm that could be big as well...
So to review
1) Fri storm- Out to sea, but still needs to be watched (medium confidence)
2) Tue storm- Real Deal, 1st Signifcant storm for area potential for 4" + there, mixing a concern fro I-95 corridor
3) Next Fri storm- Southern Jet is very active and will need to be watched these things like to come out in 3's and the last is usually the biggest...
Winter is here my friends and it might be here for a while...
Updated 1/15 6:20pm
May update later tonight, I know its been a crazy day for updates here now I'm sure alot of people saw the models today but things are looking very interesting for storminess and possible snow storms once we get to the end of this week... First threat will be Friday and this thing is pesky lil storm, basically some energy hits the coast and may explode, now is it close in and hug the coast ??? or is it further out and stay surpressed... If you remmeber the "surpression" theme was what I was looking at for this week but possibilities remian... and it will have to be watched... similar situation to Dec 30 2000 (Millienuim Blizzard) in which there is a whole page dedicated to on this site...  I reccomend checking it out...
Obviously I don't like this set up that much as I said "surpression" rules this week... But this does have t be watched with water temps as warm as they are off the eastern coast if there is a storm close enough it can strengthen very quickly...
Now this weekend we'll have a very strong arctic front come through and yes it will be delivering the mother-load of cold arctic air, now with that said it is seasonal to just below avg, but when you think about the pattern we were just in you can really see the change that has taken place
After this weekend tho you know I've really been honking about the possibility of a big storm and there has been some off and on model support the EURO showed it beautifuly a few days ago, now today alot of people are upset that the EURO shows an inland track but 1) it does show redevelopment at the coast with a "bomb" going off and
2) this whole scenerio of an inland track is troublesome at best remember the EURO does have a tendancy to have no clue to do with a southwestern trough it hnags back energy or just overall does a horrible job showing what of do with it, that bias is there and is documented, 3) also whats troublesome is the NAO which will be negative at that time
from earlier post today.. ignore writing
I believe a south and east solution is more likely, regaurdless I'm feeling very confident that this will be a storm for us... and the JMA was showing that today with a 1" QPF print out for the area just south and east of here, the JMA sniffed out the Feb 12 storm last year so it will be payed attention to... here is a looky...
Exciting times are ahead my freinds winter is back and she's about to show whats she's made of I hope....
Quick Update 1/15 11:15am
Or Even Better...