Updated 2/3 12:30am
Well our thoughts for last nights storm didn't
pan out as was advertised on here last night tho we''d still get our shot at some snow and the NAM the beast thats its been
reall showed this clipper coming though nicely and again proved it self to be very accurate this whole week...
Nice surface shot at the height of the event..
Zoomed for that last heavy snow band from 6-6:30,
was a nice lil storm to hold me over for a bit...
The arctic is coming my friends big time...
Sunday's highs...
Tuesday's lows...
That is brutal... cold will remain all week and
things will be dry as well... old saying "its too cold to snow" but hey that was covered in a post in the archives... Good
night everyone...
_______________________________________________________________________
Updated 2/1 10:40pm
First and foremost here I'd like to appologize
as what I thought would materialize is not, its been a long time since I busted like this, and it hurts especially when last
night I was really confident it what I thought was going to transpire I can go thorugh alot of reasons as to why things went
wrong but the crux of the problem is it came out in two pieces and the first piece of the storm robbed the 2nd there are always
possibilities for miracles but I'm not stupid enough to just watch this go to hell as it has, cause miracles don't happen
that often and we has one 7 years ago, so we're not exactly due yet... So above you see the map from accuweather and I'd say
it looks pretty good, expect a possible coating in area of SE PA, but it probably will NOT make it into Berks County, Ironically
we may still get 2" of snow tho.... how ??? you may ask... Well look whats behind it, that clipper cutting through the lakes,
the NAM (which is on steroids in terms of accurcy) has gotten agressive with it to the point where we may still get 1-3" tomorrow
afternoon and night... And I'm not about to argue with the NAM after the coup it performed this week it spat in the face of
every other model and won... simply amazing... Trust me note of this has been taken...
As for where we go from here, well the cold that
I forgot about al week while trying to track this storm is a coming and its coming hard, next week we'll have a hard tiem
getting above 25 and its just going to be extreme cold...
But what about snow ???
You can't ask for a better pattern next week and
in earlier posts you saw the blizzard run of the GFS, the EURO had a storm on earlier runs to, both will bring it back and
take it away... Next week tho I will be more carefull and will NOT fall in the trap that I did this weekend... Again my appologies...
_____________________________________________________________
Updated 2/1 12:37am
Happy February all this was always forecasted to
be the snow month... and the latest run of the GFS tonight besides bringing back tomorrow's storm also gave us a beautiful
thing to hope for in teh long range and that would be... "The Blizzard of 07" coming to places near you, next weekend ???
Its much to early to say that but the pattern looks
about as good as you can get so maybe this will be the big storm of the year... Cross your fingers and legs and toes and anything
else you can think to cross if your a snow lover...
__________________________________________________________
Updated 1/31 11:20pm
So this is it the final countdown is one and we
should know what is going on with our potential 1st true winter storm... Now you've seen my 1st threat zones, and 1st call...
at the end of this you will find my final call... But I want to start off with why I put out the 1st map so early, thats cause
part of me figured that the models would start to flip and flop and bring us to a period of insanity and thats exactly what
happened as of yesterday morning, but starting this evening a further north soultion has started and I'm confident that the
trend will continue into tomorrow It's gonna snow guys.... Now here is my final call...
For Berks I'd say 3 or 4" is a good bet on this
one... further south and east you get more KOP near 6" but once to Philly you got mixing issues, but 3" should be good
amount for the i-95 cities, I still think this thing will be a touch warmer than the new 00z GFS run shows but we shall see
soon enough, may have to update tomorrow but this is the forecast for which to grade....
__________________________________________________________________
Updated 1/30 11:20pm
Went a lil more robust in terms of track now for
our region... but this thing is a sky rocket in terms of speed... will keep totals down...
_________________________________________________________________________________________
Updated 1/30 8:45am
Its looking more and more likely that the Berks
Region has the threat of its first true winter storm on its hands later this week, It will be a quick hitting storm as there
is no blocking, but it looks like it could be quite potent... I don't want to go too nuts with the modles but i did want to
show the GFS and NAM runs from 11 last night and 6 this morning...
First Last Nights run of the GFS which was fairly
mild and the furthest inland in reguards to track... Would create some mixing issues to sleet in the area... I do think this
is the furthest west we see this storm on the models....
this scenerio would give us about 4" of snow and
over 2" of sleet
Now this mornings run of the GFS is further east
and colder again altho it is a touch weaker...
This looks to be about a 5 or 6" event with very
little sleet accordning to this run... Also it shows another storm threat at the beginning of next week...
Now the NAM model is just coming into range, its
hard to trust a model taht is meant for a more "short term" range but its here so lets take a look...
Now one thing to keep in mind is the NAM usually
has a NW and mild bias, so the fact that its further east than last nighst GFS and colder is interesting... It keeps it almost
all snow in the 5-6" range...
This is what I call consistency and its shocking
to see it this far out, so yeah to me it looks likely we will have a significant snowfall this week, questions remain about
how much mixing will occur but I think this is a bigger problem for areas South east of Berks County... Altho it will
be watched... Remember tho to get the best snows you have to be able to smell the rain... Time will tell, another updated
later tonight...
_____________________________________________________________
Updated 1/30 12:30am
Mostly Rain Zone (Teal)- A quick shot of wintry precip going over to rain fairly quickly
-Snow
To Rain Zone (Lime)- This area is where I feel a 50/50 event will occur in terms of white to wet... Any accumulations tho
won't be too impresive 1 or 2" snows probable, before going to rain [DC in this zone]
-Mostly Snow Zone (Sky Blue)-
This area will get mostly snow and will probably get significant snows in the 4" area [Bal, PHL, NYC]
-Heavy Snow Zone
1 (Maroon)- A narrow band of heavier precip COULD set up just near the rain/snow line, Heavy Snows are Possible In This Area...
5" + possible [ABE in this zone]
-Heavy Snow Zone 2 (Red)- This area its PROBABLE that Heavier snow could occur 8"+
amounts possible in this area [BOS], this zone could go up easter shore of ME
-Moderate Snow Zone (Dark Grey)- Steady
but not heavy snows probable in this area, there could be a sharp fall off in snow accumulations ala Blizz of 06' just will
occur a bit further west, Eastern side could see 6" while western edge is only at 2"
[Scranton in this zone]
-Light
Snow Zone (Light Grey)- Very light snows possible 1 or 2"
Confidence level in this event this far out is at a medium
level there could and most likely will be some changes but overall I like the zones I laid out... I-95 is the battlezone...
I expect that tonights 00z run of the GFS is the furthest west we will see
________________________________________________________________________
Updated 1/29 12:00am
Just a mid storm update, things are winding up
a bit further north originally thought, but not my much...
With the current situation here is my current thinking,
someone in teh pink area is going to see 5" also... But our area should be winding down and in Berks places on the east side
will have it worst probablty getting an inch or an inch and half at most on the west side of the county its only another trace
amount...
____________________________________________________________
Updated 1/28 12:00
For snow lovers in the area the 6 z runs were quite
a delight to see..
But alas the 12z runs aren't as agressive and are
a touch further south as well... I'm fine with that as my call that I'm finally willing to make is for a little bit of both...
Snowfall will begin in the evening hours,
I'd say somewhere in the 5-7pm range, now this is still a very odd situation so that 1-2" line could back up NW into our area
but my best guess is right around one inch for Berks, PHL gets 2", ACY 3" and somewere in southern NJ gets 4" somewhere in
that pink zone...
Now I know a few out there are shocked as my repuation
for being more agressive has come into question marks recently, but The past two situations were quite exotic and complicated
if we ever get a real snow event to track all the way from 5 days out, you'll see me put out a 1st guess and a 1st call days
ahead of time but in situations like this its different and much more dificult remember just a day and half ago this was supposed
to be a storm for Souteast New England, things can change fast and I knew they would so instead of making an accumulation
map that will end up being wrong I made threat maps til I felt comfortable and confident in a forecast, for those that have
questioned my M/O recently I appologize but as said numerous times whats the point of being 1st and wrong...
Sorm coverage will start later this afternoon
____________________________________________________________________
TEMP DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION IS HUGE TODAY
Updated 1/28 4:30pm
So all the focus now is on whether we will get
snow or not, now as said here the chance was always there but it didn't look likely, basically what you have is an energy
transfer to strengthening low out in the ocean and its possible that a narrow band of light snow sets up in between... Now
I know there is alot of pressure in this world of weather forecasting to be the first out with a call and what not but its
still more important to be right what I"m going to show you here is the run of forecast modles earlier this morning and afternoon
to show you just how much they do not agree...
Now if you ask me I think its prety hard to make
a forecast based on all this, its really a rare situation and a complicated one at that so i will not make a forecast for
snowfall til tomorrow morning, if that makes me a gutless forecast I am sorry, but like I said I want to be right, not 1st
at being wrong, with that said... snow is likely whether its a dusting or 3" remains to be seen...
Here is Accuweather's thinking at this point...
Here is mine...
Anyway the cold is a coming my friends
more late tonight...
___________________________________________________________________
Updated 1/26 10:45pm
Quick post tonight as I have to be up early tomorrow
house shopping, "Oh Joy"... lol... First things first how bout that cold last night down to 7 degrees... I had said 9 a few
days ago so it got colder than even I thought... and from the hours of 2am til 9am it was below 10 degrees now thats damn
cold...
Just wanted to show these images as well about
the snow last night, it sucked to be in Eastern Berks, and all of Montgomery Counties...
This line can be seen clearly from satellite as
well...
Light snow tonight has stayed north of the area
and is weakening anyway...
Now thats enough about the past what about this
Sunday's possible event, well I really think this thing comes together too late to be a player here but just north and east
its definetly possible for snow, this will be monitored as tomrrow progress' as much as I don't trust the models I think they
have done ok in the short term recently... So here would be my first threat call... I want to stress it is most likely
for this to be out to sea...
As for when we could finally see a real storm the
Feb 2nd period has always been highlighted and with anegative EPO we finally have a shot at getting these things to not be
squashed or surpressed... Here is the 18z (yes I know its the 18z) GFS... and also a precip type printout for Reading... It
shows what would be around a 5" snowfall...
The 6z run showed a storm a day later tha depected
by the 18z... a lil bit bigger and stronger...
Now the 12z run showed a storm out to sea much
like we have in our pattern this week...
What I do not like is the GFS out this far its
gonna flip flop more than John Kerry running for Prez back in 04, but a -EPO and -NAO coming up makes me think this thing
can come up...
So we shall see more tomorrow kids...
_____________________________________________________________
Updated 1/25 11:45pm
1/25 Snow-Squall Event Review
MORNING SQUALL...
**********************12
HOUR SNOWFALL**********************
LOCATION 12 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT
DELAWARE
...NEW CASTLE COUNTY...
BEAR T 100 PM 1/25
WILMINGTON AIRPORT T 100 PM 1/25
NEW JERSEY
...ATLANTIC COUNTY...
ATLANTIC CITY AIRPORT T 100 PM 1/25
PLEASANTVILLE T 100 PM 1/25
...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
MOUNT HOLLY NWS 0.1 100 PM 1/25
...GLOUCESTER COUNTY...
NATIONAL PARK T 100 PM 1/25
...MERCER COUNTY...
EWING 0.1 100 PM 1/25
...MORRIS COUNTY...
OAK RIDGE 1.0 930 AM 1/25
MARCELLA 1.0 830 AM 1/25
BUTLER 0.8 740 AM 1/25
...SUSSEX COUNTY...
GREEN TOWNSHIP 1.2 900 AM 1/25
WANTAGE 0.9 700 AM 1/25
...WARREN COUNTY...
BLAIRSTOWN 1.0 510 AM 1/25
PENNSYLVANIA
...BUCKS COUNTY...
BENSALEM 0.5 1250 PM 1/25
DOYLESTOWN 0.4 1200 PM 1/25
...CHESTER COUNTY...
HONEY BROOK 0.5 900 AM 1/25
EXTON 0.2 930 AM 1/25
GLENMOORE 0.1 735 AM 1/25
...MONROE COUNTY...
TOBYHANNA 2.8 925 AM 1/25
...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY...
PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT T 100 PM 1/25
EVENING SQUALL...
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************
LOCATION
STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT
NEW JERSEY
...ATLANTIC COUNTY...
MARGATE CITY
2.0 1047 PM 1/25
WEYMOUTH
2.0 1048 PM 1/25
EGG HARBOR TWP 1.5 1046
PM 1/25
LINWOOD
1.3 1047 PM 1/25
SOMERS POINT 1.0
1048 PM 1/25
HAMMONTON
0.1 1048 PM 1/25
...GLOUCESTER COUNTY...
PITMAN
T 915 PM 1/25 STREETS COVERED/SLICK
...SALEM COUNTY...
PITTSGROVE
1.7 1045 PM 1/25
PENNSYLVANIA
...BERKS COUNTY...
LINCOLN PARK
2.0 955 PM 1/25 WATER EQUIVALENT 0.09"
MORGANTOWN
2.0 900 PM 1/25
...CHESTER COUNTY...
EAST NANTMEAL
3.3 1000 PM 1/25 3" THIS EVENING
DOWNINGTOWN
2.0 900 PM 1/25
PHOENIXVILLE
1.1 950 PM 1/25
COATESVILLE
1.0 915 PM 1/25
...DELAWARE COUNTY...
WALLINGFORD
2.2 1000 PM 1/25
____sorry can't get the accumulations to post in nicely_________
In regaurds to my forecast it was on pretty good,
as shown above 2 different squall bands came through in those areas which were in my "threat box" I had narrow bands of 1-3"
and amounts from what I'm finding are in the 1-2" range, with one spot at 3.3"... Overall grade... A+. Unfortunetly
durning the the day I can't update here but I do make comments and nowcast over at the Eastern US Wx forum... Had a huge success
Nowcasting today...
post #94
"There is a ton of precip forming in NW PA (south
and east of Bradford) moving towards SE PA... Looks to me that the southern half of Berks And Montogomery Counties and also
all of Chester, Delaware and PHL are still in the game..."
That post was before 3:30 and was myselft tracking
a band of snow up in NW PA at the time... that band was later felt in the exact area stated (even the half counties)...
Remember you can find all my older
posts in the archive links seen below... usually its about 10 days worth of posts... See you tomorrow...
