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Berks Winter Cast

Blog Archive 1/25- 2/3

 
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Updated 2/3 12:30am
 
Well our thoughts for last nights storm didn't pan out as was advertised on here last night tho we''d still get our shot at some snow and the NAM the beast thats its been reall showed this clipper coming though nicely and again proved it self to be very accurate this whole week... 
 
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Nice surface shot at the height of the event..
 
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Zoomed for that last heavy snow band from 6-6:30, was a nice lil storm to hold me over for a bit...
 
 
 
The arctic is coming  my friends big time...
 
Sunday's highs...
 
 
Tuesday's lows...
 
 
That is brutal... cold will remain all week and things will be dry as well... old saying "its too cold to snow" but hey that was covered in a post in the archives... Good night everyone... 
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Updated 2/1 10:40pm
 
First and foremost here I'd like to appologize as what I thought would materialize is not, its been a long time since I busted like this, and it hurts especially when last night I was really confident it what I thought was going to transpire I can go thorugh alot of reasons as to why things went wrong but the crux of the problem is it came out in two pieces and the first piece of the storm robbed the 2nd there are always possibilities for miracles but I'm not stupid enough to just watch this go to hell as it has, cause miracles don't happen that often and we has one 7 years ago, so we're not exactly due yet... So above you see the map from accuweather and I'd say it looks pretty good, expect a possible coating in area of SE PA, but it probably will NOT make it into Berks County, Ironically we may still get 2" of snow tho.... how ??? you may ask... Well look whats behind it, that clipper cutting through the lakes, the NAM (which is on steroids in terms of accurcy) has gotten agressive with it to the point where we may still get 1-3" tomorrow afternoon and night... And I'm not about to argue with the NAM after the coup it performed this week it spat in the face of every other model and won... simply amazing... Trust me note of this has been taken...
 
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As for where we go from here, well the cold that I forgot about al week while trying to track this storm is a coming and its coming hard, next week we'll have a hard tiem getting above 25 and its just going to be extreme cold...
 
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But what about snow ???
 
You can't ask for a better pattern next week and in earlier posts you saw the blizzard run of the GFS, the EURO had a storm on earlier runs to, both will bring it back and take it away... Next week tho I will be more carefull and will NOT fall in the trap that I did this weekend... Again my appologies...
 
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Updated 2/1 12:37am
 
Happy February all this was always forecasted to be the snow month... and the latest run of the GFS tonight besides bringing back tomorrow's storm also gave us a beautiful thing to hope for in teh long range and that would be... "The Blizzard of 07" coming to places near you, next weekend ???
 
 
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Its much to early to say that but the pattern looks about as good as you can get so maybe this will be the big storm of the year... Cross your fingers and legs and toes and anything else you can think to cross if your a snow lover...
 
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Updated 1/31 11:20pm
 
So this is it the final countdown is one and we should know what is going on with our potential 1st true winter storm... Now you've seen my 1st threat zones, and 1st call... at the end of this you will find my final call... But I want to start off with why I put out the 1st map so early, thats cause part of me figured that the models would start to flip and flop and bring us to a period of insanity and thats exactly what happened as of yesterday morning, but starting this evening a further north soultion has started and I'm confident that the trend will continue into tomorrow  It's gonna snow guys.... Now here is my final call...
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For Berks I'd say 3 or 4" is a good bet on this one... further south and east you get more KOP near 6" but once to Philly you got mixing issues, but 3" should be good amount for the i-95 cities, I still think this thing will be a touch warmer than the new 00z GFS run shows but we shall see soon enough, may have to update tomorrow but this is the forecast for which to grade....
 
 
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Updated 1/30 11:20pm
 
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Went a lil more robust in terms of track now for our region... but this thing is a sky rocket in terms of speed... will keep totals down...
 
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Updated 1/30 8:45am
 
Its looking more and more likely that the Berks Region has the threat of its first true winter storm on its hands later this week, It will be a quick hitting storm as there is no blocking, but it looks like it could be quite potent... I don't want to go too nuts with the modles but i did want to show the GFS and NAM runs from 11 last night and 6 this morning...
 
First Last Nights run of the GFS which was fairly mild and the furthest inland in reguards to track... Would create some mixing issues to sleet in the area... I do think this is the furthest west we see this storm on the models....
 
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this scenerio would give us about 4" of snow and over 2" of sleet
 
Now this mornings run of the GFS is further east and colder again altho it is a touch weaker...
 
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This looks to be about a 5 or 6" event with very little sleet accordning to this run... Also it shows another storm threat at  the beginning of next week...
 
Now the NAM model is just coming into range, its hard to trust a model taht is meant for a more "short term" range but its here so lets take a look...
 
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Now one thing to keep in mind is the NAM usually has a NW and mild bias, so the fact that its further east than last nighst GFS and colder is interesting... It keeps it almost all snow in the 5-6" range...
 
This is what I call consistency and its shocking to see it this far out, so yeah to me it looks likely we will have a significant snowfall this week, questions remain about how much mixing will occur but I think this is a bigger problem for areas South east of Berks County... Altho it will be watched... Remember tho to get the best snows you have to be able to smell the rain... Time will tell, another updated later tonight...
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Updated 1/30 12:30am
 
 
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Mostly Rain Zone (Teal)- A quick shot of wintry precip going over to rain fairly quickly

-Snow To Rain Zone (Lime)- This area is where I feel a 50/50 event will occur in terms of white to wet... Any accumulations tho won't be too impresive 1 or 2" snows probable, before going to rain [DC in this zone]

-Mostly Snow Zone (Sky Blue)- This area will get mostly snow and will probably get significant snows in the 4" area [Bal, PHL, NYC]

-Heavy Snow Zone 1 (Maroon)- A narrow band of heavier precip COULD set up just near the rain/snow line, Heavy Snows are Possible In This Area... 5" + possible [ABE in this zone]

-Heavy Snow Zone 2 (Red)- This area its PROBABLE that Heavier snow could occur 8"+ amounts possible in this area [BOS], this zone could go up easter shore of ME

-Moderate Snow Zone (Dark Grey)- Steady but not heavy snows probable in this area, there could be a sharp fall off in snow accumulations ala Blizz of 06' just will occur a bit further west, Eastern side could see 6" while western edge is only at 2"
[Scranton in this zone]

-Light Snow Zone (Light Grey)- Very light snows possible 1 or 2"

Confidence level in this event this far out is at a medium level there could and most likely will be some changes but overall I like the zones I laid out... I-95 is the battlezone... I expect that tonights 00z run of the GFS is the furthest west we will see
 
 
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Updated 1/29 12:00am
 
Just a mid storm update, things are winding up a bit further north originally thought, but not my much...
 
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With the current situation here is my current thinking, someone in teh pink area is going to see 5" also... But our area should be winding down and in Berks places on the east side will have it worst probablty getting an inch or an inch and half at most on the west side of the county its only another trace amount...
 
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Updated 1/28 12:00
 
For snow lovers in the area the 6 z runs were quite a delight to see..
 
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But alas the 12z runs aren't as agressive and are a touch further south as well... I'm fine with that as my call that I'm finally willing to make is for a little bit of both...
 
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Snowfall will begin in the evening hours, I'd say somewhere in the 5-7pm range, now this is still a very odd situation so that 1-2" line could back up NW into our area but my best guess is right around one inch for Berks, PHL gets 2", ACY 3" and somewere in southern NJ gets 4" somewhere in that pink zone...
 
Now I know a few out there are shocked as my repuation for being more agressive has come into question marks recently, but The past two situations were quite exotic and complicated if we ever get a real snow event to track all the way from 5 days out, you'll see me put out a 1st guess and a 1st call days ahead of time but in situations like this its different and much more dificult remember just a day and half ago this was supposed to be a storm for Souteast New England, things can change fast and I knew they would so instead of making an accumulation map that will end up being wrong I made threat maps til I felt comfortable and confident in a forecast, for those that have questioned my M/O recently I appologize but as said numerous times whats the point of being 1st and wrong...
 
Sorm coverage will start later this afternoon
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TEMP DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION IS HUGE TODAY
 
Updated 1/28 4:30pm
 
So all the focus now is on whether we will get snow or not, now as said here the chance was always there but it didn't look likely, basically what you have is an energy transfer to strengthening low out in the ocean and its possible that a narrow band of light snow sets up in between... Now I know there is alot of pressure in this world of weather forecasting to be the first out with a call and what not but its still more important to be right what I"m going to show you here is the run of forecast modles earlier this morning and afternoon to show you just how much they do not agree...
 
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Now if you ask me I think its prety hard to make a forecast based on all this, its really a rare situation and a complicated one at that so i will not make a forecast for snowfall til tomorrow morning, if that makes me a gutless forecast I am sorry, but like I said I want to be right, not 1st at being wrong, with that said... snow is likely whether its a dusting or 3" remains to be seen...
 
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Here is Accuweather's thinking at this point...
 
 
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Here is mine...
 
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Anyway the cold is a coming my friends
 
 
more late tonight...
 
 
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Updated 1/26 10:45pm
 
Quick post tonight as I have to be up early tomorrow house shopping, "Oh Joy"... lol... First things first how bout that cold last night down to 7 degrees... I had said 9 a few days ago so it got colder than even I thought... and from the hours of 2am til 9am it was below 10 degrees now thats damn cold...
 
Just wanted to show these images as well about the snow last night, it sucked to be in Eastern Berks, and all of Montgomery Counties...
 
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This line can be seen clearly from satellite as well...
 
Snow stripe on visible satellite image from the morning of 1/26/2007
 
Light snow tonight has stayed north of the area and is weakening anyway...
 
 
Now thats enough about the past what about this Sunday's possible event, well I really think this thing comes together too late to be a player here but just north and east its definetly possible for snow, this will be monitored as tomrrow progress' as much as I don't trust the models I think they have done ok in the short term recently... So here would be my first threat call... I want to stress it is most likely for this to be out to sea...
 
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As for when we could finally see a real storm the Feb 2nd period has always been highlighted and with anegative EPO we finally have a shot at getting these things to not be squashed or surpressed... Here is the 18z (yes I know its the 18z) GFS... and also a precip type printout for Reading... It shows what would be around a 5" snowfall...
 
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The 6z run showed a storm a day later tha depected by the 18z... a lil bit bigger and stronger...
 
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Now the 12z run showed a storm out to sea much like we have in our pattern this week... 
 
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What I do not like is the GFS out this far its gonna flip flop more than John Kerry running for Prez back in 04, but a -EPO and -NAO coming up makes me think this thing can come up...
 
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So we shall see more tomorrow kids...
 
 
 
 
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Updated 1/25 11:45pm
 
1/25 Snow-Squall Event Review
 
MORNING SQUALL...
 
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**********************12 HOUR SNOWFALL********************** LOCATION 12 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF (INCHES) MEASUREMENT DELAWARE ...NEW CASTLE COUNTY... BEAR T 100 PM 1/25 WILMINGTON AIRPORT T 100 PM 1/25 NEW JERSEY ...ATLANTIC COUNTY... ATLANTIC CITY AIRPORT T 100 PM 1/25 PLEASANTVILLE T 100 PM 1/25 ...BURLINGTON COUNTY... MOUNT HOLLY NWS 0.1 100 PM 1/25 ...GLOUCESTER COUNTY... NATIONAL PARK T 100 PM 1/25 ...MERCER COUNTY... EWING 0.1 100 PM 1/25 ...MORRIS COUNTY... OAK RIDGE 1.0 930 AM 1/25 MARCELLA 1.0 830 AM 1/25 BUTLER 0.8 740 AM 1/25 ...SUSSEX COUNTY... GREEN TOWNSHIP 1.2 900 AM 1/25 WANTAGE 0.9 700 AM 1/25 ...WARREN COUNTY... BLAIRSTOWN 1.0 510 AM 1/25 PENNSYLVANIA ...BUCKS COUNTY... BENSALEM 0.5 1250 PM 1/25 DOYLESTOWN 0.4 1200 PM 1/25 ...CHESTER COUNTY... HONEY BROOK 0.5 900 AM 1/25 EXTON 0.2 930 AM 1/25 GLENMOORE 0.1 735 AM 1/25 ...MONROE COUNTY... TOBYHANNA 2.8 925 AM 1/25 ...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY... PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT T 100 PM 1/25
 
EVENING SQUALL...
 
 
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********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL       OF
                     (INCHES)   MEASUREMENT


NEW JERSEY

...ATLANTIC COUNTY...
   MARGATE CITY           2.0  1047 PM  1/25
   WEYMOUTH               2.0  1048 PM  1/25
   EGG HARBOR TWP         1.5  1046 PM  1/25
   LINWOOD                1.3  1047 PM  1/25
   SOMERS POINT           1.0  1048 PM  1/25
   HAMMONTON              0.1  1048 PM  1/25

...GLOUCESTER COUNTY...
   PITMAN                   T   915 PM  1/25   STREETS COVERED/SLICK

...SALEM COUNTY...
   PITTSGROVE             1.7  1045 PM  1/25

PENNSYLVANIA

...BERKS COUNTY...
   LINCOLN PARK           2.0   955 PM  1/25   WATER EQUIVALENT 0.09"
   MORGANTOWN             2.0   900 PM  1/25

...CHESTER COUNTY...
   EAST NANTMEAL          3.3  1000 PM  1/25   3" THIS EVENING
   DOWNINGTOWN            2.0   900 PM  1/25
   PHOENIXVILLE           1.1   950 PM  1/25
   COATESVILLE            1.0   915 PM  1/25

...DELAWARE COUNTY...
   WALLINGFORD            2.2  1000 PM  1/25

 

____sorry can't get the accumulations to post in nicely_________


In regaurds to my forecast it was on pretty good, as shown above 2 different squall bands came through in those areas which were in my "threat box" I had narrow bands of 1-3" and amounts from what I'm finding are in the 1-2" range, with one spot at 3.3"... Overall grade... A+.  Unfortunetly durning the the day I can't update here but I do make comments and nowcast over at the Eastern US Wx forum... Had a huge success Nowcasting today...
 
 
post #94
 
"There is a ton of precip forming in NW PA (south and east of Bradford) moving towards SE PA... Looks to me that the southern half of Berks And Montogomery Counties and also all of Chester, Delaware and PHL are still in the game..." 
 
That post was before 3:30 and was myselft tracking a band of snow up in NW PA at the time... that band was later felt in the exact area stated (even the half counties)...
 
Remember you can find all my older posts in the archive links seen below... usually its about 10 days worth of posts... See you tomorrow...