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Berks Winter Cast

9/6- 11/19 Blog Archive

 
Updated 11/19 9:00pm
 
RAINSTORM THIS GO AROUND FOR OUR TURKEY DAY...
 
img266/5377/1119gfsturkeydayka1.png
 
How ever the emphasis for wet is more north of our area and the Euro run today was even drier...
 
img206/2731/1119eurokindadryes3.png
 
The Canadian Computer Model is also in the norther camp... with the precip which I buy as this looks like the most likely scenerio at  this point...  So instead of a rainstorm, it should just be dreary...
 
img206/7058/1119cmcnorthsturkeyrainob0.png
 
Regurdless Friday's looking to be very cold after the storm passes, thats quite a core of cold at 850 as seen here on the 18 Z GFS
 
img514/8732/1119gfs850anomsvq8.png
 
 
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daboms.jpg

Updated 11/18 9:30pm
 
INSIGIFICANT STORM CLASS BUT STILL A FUN LIL BUGGER TO COVER... SNOW CONTINUES BUT LIGHT ORIGINAL CALL LOOKS FINE... JUST HIGHER AMOUNTS HIGHER UP... ITS A BACKAND FORTH RAIN TO SNOW SNOW TO RAIN GAME FOR BERKS
 
img101/2607/24hourcast1118ig5.png
 
ADVISORIES UP FOR THE AREA...
 
img101/238/1118wawtj6.png

SNOW ADVISORY
Issue Date: 600 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2007
Expiration: 500 AM EST MON NOV 19 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
                                                      A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY.
                                                      SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A TOTAL
                                                      ACCUMULATION ON AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. SNOW MAY FALL AT THE
                                                      RATE OF AROUND ONE HALF PER HOUR AT TIMES.
                                                      ROAD SURFACES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME SLIPPERY, ESPECIALLY
                                                      BRIDGES, OVERPASSES AND LESS TRAVELED ROADWAYS. THIS IS THE FIRST
                                                      WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING
                                                      AROUND THE REGION TONIGHT, BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.
                                                      SLOW DOWN WHILE DRIVING AND LEAVE PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN YOUR
                                                      VEHICLE AND THE ONE AHEAD OF YOU. THE FALLING SNOW WILL ALSO
                                                      REDUCE THE VISIBILITY.
                                                      
img119/4572/1118radarnightbackandfone3.gif
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Updated 11/18 4:30pm
 
GOT TO SEE SOME SNOW... YAY !!! LIGHT BUT NICE TO LOOK AT FOR SURE...
 
img139/3537/415imageez4.png
 
Some pics...
 
 
 
And looking at the latest radar returns and computer models, you can see precip starting to form down near the DC area if this area of precip does indeed fill in still tonight aditional snow maybe possible and with it being night time accumulations would be possible.
 
img136/7048/bgmnoneanim11183sq4.gif
 
img223/7463/snowadvixt4.png
 

NWS issues SNOW ADVISORY FOR BERKS

Updated 11/17 4:30pm
 
TOUGH CALL ON EARLY CLIPPER SNOW... SLIGHT ACCULULATION IS POSSIBLE !!!
 
img86/3235/1117radarloopfk8.gif
 
As indicted on this site for past two days, clipper system will be coming through and indeed looks to pack a little more punch than first though, 12z NAM being the most prolific but even the GFS is a lil more juiced up, but is further north with track as is the RGEM other modes are in the southern NAM camp, which I am in as well due to its more consistant runs...
 
img256/5351/12zna1117newyj6.png
 
I like what the MM5 is Doing:
 
img221/3213/mm5preciptypejc1.gif
 
Surface temps not exactly great, best snow can be seen in areas north of line shown below
 
img233/6536/temps3pm1117zj9.png
 
First and only call...
 
img258/8148/1117snowcastclipperpt0.png
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Updated 11/15 8:31pm
 
NAM SHOWS YESTERDAY'S IDEA OF LIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING VERY LIGHT SNOW FOR SUNDAY....
 
img442/7939/newnamtakeoverclippervg1.png

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Updated 11/14 8:30pm
 
BIG RAINSTORM ON THE WAY... USHERS IN NEXT COLD WAVE... LIGHT SNOW FROM CLIPPER POSSIBLE... LATE WEEK STORM GONE... FOR NOW
 
img136/4794/gfsrainystromreplacmentuw7.png
img442/4892/gfsclipperreplaceyf4.png

Looks like model agreement is pretty good that the best action for rain will be in the interior, but we're on that fence as shown by both the NAM and the GFS
 
img150/6915/1114raingfsfz6.png

img222/3070/12znam1114precipst9.png
 
Could this clipper be a first shot at a lil bit of snow flying arounp, perhaps even a dusting we shall see... Models are losing next weeks big storm, but at least we have this possible clipper to keep us occupied until the models get their beaings again....

For sure the cold will be coming...
 
img210/2300/1114widxhillcastfrizf0.png
 
img207/1108/1114gfscoldng4.png

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Updated 11/13 10:14pm
 
GROWING CONFIDENCE BUILDING FOR A BIG STORM NEXT WEEK...
 
 
Here is a look at the model images from the Euro (top) 00z left, 12 z right... both agree on big storms just coastal vs inland, the GFS on the other hand has begun its usual waffling... with a storm at 00z a big storm at 6z (not shown) and then nothing on the 12z run... I'm riding the Euro right now there will be a storm just many details yet to be worked out, We're gone from SNOCON-5 to SNOCON 4 for sure... will bear watching, I will say though to get a decent snowstorm will require an amzing set of circumstances to go completely right... So odds are against, but this is truly the first threat we'll see what tonights runs bring in.
 
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Updated 11/12 10:21pm
 
Just a quick update tonight, it isn't gonna happen but it was pretty to look at on the 12z GFS...
 
img145/7844/1212254gflxf8.jpg
 
img223/4103/12q2gfssnowdreamkt2.jpg
 
One thing does look interesting in the relm of reality is the kind of cold that we see on the GFS ensembles consistantly, a cold and possible wild end to the month maybe in store... We shall see...
 
img209/6640/1212gfsanomslo4.png
 
And I always said if November ends up cold we're in for a blocbuster winter... we have mild air on the way, and this is where we're at now...
 
img221/235/sofar1112yj5.png
 
We'll see if the cold at the end of the month can seal our fate... so much is riding on the next couple weeks...
 
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Updated 11/7/07 7:45pm
 
BIG STORM LIKELY... CLOSE CALL... MAYBE
 
 
GFS says not so uch but Euro had a big storm cranking up the coast around day 9-10... NAO crashing negative would give creedance will bare watching...
 
img165/1962/nao1107aj2.png
 
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Updated 11/7/07  7:30pm
 
img208/1417/12712zeuroer3.png
 
Nothing to see here folks move along, we may pssibly see wome flakes flying around but that is it... Back to my two week vacation
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Updated 10/31/07  3:00pm
 
img161/1249/1028snowcovervn3.png
 
The astonishing build in snow cover has contiued so much in North America that we are just about at normal levels for this time of year, compared to how we started the month this was truly an amazing change... Nice Cold a coming...
 
img147/1286/10316to10daycoldcr8.png
 
img220/4236/10311stcoldoutbreakgfszd0.png
img115/5654/1031coldshpteurole4.png
 
 
Pretty good model agreement of our first true cold outbreak at least as show here by the GFS and the EURO
 
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img515/2950/snowcoversiberbuildupcb1.gif
 
Updated 10/22 7:00pm
 
Hey all just wanted to mention that we have seen an amazing build up of snowcover in the northern hemisphere with an explosion of snow cover in Siberia in just a few days, in the days since we've begun to see that start to spill over to North America which is defeinetly a good thing for a snowier and cold winter... There is alot to overcome this winter to keep it from being mild I'm in teh camp that this can occur due to the NAO and this buildup of snowcover is further evidence at least for me.
 
That said we still have a long way to go here are some years past...
 
2006
 
2005
 
2004
 
2003
 
2002
 
2001
 
 
 
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Updated 10/21  10:00pm
 
Winter Outlook is up folks, as well as examples now give in the winter storm classification page and I'm sure you have noticed the reviews of the El Nino Winter of 02-03 and the La Nina winter of 95-96, the site is almost 100% ready for the winter season now, just need to bring up some more of the model snowfall maps to the models page and we'll be good to go.  Daily updates should begin sometime in Novemeber...
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Updated 9/15 10:00pm
 
Just wanted to add more fuel to teh fire in regurards to winter research, today looked at La Nina's since 1950 not so much in terms of strength as is usually done but actually more so in regurds to location (east vs west) that dividing line being longitude 120W...  All events were looked with there status of where thery were based more so in regurds to this line with late summer SST's... Of the events that were a La Nina West the following winters averaged quite warm
 
 
As for east you can see the opposite...
 
 
Here you can see 4 eamples of each... starting with west
 
 
and east....
 
 
Oh yeah as for where the SST's are based as of August for this year just east of 120W... and there are other indications for a La Nina east type event...
 
Just some food for thought...
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Updated 9/11 11:32pm
 
This year I'm coming out with my winter forecast a bit earlier than normal (There most likely will be an October update this year however), there seems to be alot of conflicting information. when looking at the indicies, for example the NAO looks to be negative for this winter (when looking at others research as well as forecast trends), but when looking at QBO analogs its an absolute nightmare if you like a snowy winter and this trend of opposites continues through alot of the inicies so I'm mainly going to look at the analogs this year with the Enso as well as SST analogs as well... first up is the ENSO obviously the biggest player in this coming will be the La Nina we're heading into, alot of people are debating strength and such, I however like to look at trends in the overall pattern of the ENSO putting empasis on the exiting ENSO as well, in this I found 4 analogs that work well with the pattern 1903-04, 1906-07, 1966-67 and 1995-96 (all were weak to moderate La Ninas that had quick turn around from moderate el Nino's the previous winter...
 
img526/3742/ensoanalogcompositedo1.png
That would look to be a east coast winter lovers dream in terms of temperatures but not so much in precip when looking at the dry conditions in the SE and Mid Atlantic as shown, ( a pattern simlar to the one we're in now with the drought)... Factoring in the SST analogs shows a shift in the zones of cold and wet... My SST analogs look at the northern Pacific and northern Analog they are not seperated here and are just all thrown together to look for trends... Also when lookint the SST's there are all La Nina winters... from weak to strong... 1906-07, 1908-09, 1916-17, 1942-43, 1954-55, 1964-65, 1973-74, 1988-89, 1995-96, and 2000-01...
img261/3013/sstanalogatlandpacps3.png
 
Now this shows a more traditional La Nina Look, the glaring exception though is in the NW US... So in morphing these two together one can See my winter forecast below...

img411/5258/temps2ay9.png
 
select cities...

Boston -1.2
NYC -1
Philly -.7
DC -.4
RAL N
ATL +1.3
HOU +2.4
DAL +2
MEM +1.1
STL +1
CHI -1.1
DET -1.4
PIT -.9
MIN -2
DEN +1
 
img113/7196/precip2ou4.png
 
 
img261/2971/snow2nm8.png
 
select cities...

Boston 114%
NYC 112%
Philly 110%
DC 95%
RAL 60%
ATL 50%
HOU N/A
DAL N/A
MEM 90%
STL 110%
CHI 140%
DET 120%
PIT 125%
MIN 125%
DEN 100%

Common Storm Tracks this winter... I will be looking for redevelopments
 
img261/8610/stormstracks2fh3.png
 
 
 
 
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Updated 9/6 2:30pm
 
And away we go its September and that means that things start getting heated up on this website, Winter Outlook research has begun and looks to be on track for a release during the 1st week of October, no hints or previews this year, but there will actually be an update in November probably 1st week or 2nd just to tweak the winter outlook as by then things will have more or less settled into the probably patterns...
 
If you haven't been on the site all summer you will see a number of changes 1) New graphics all over the place (more are still to be added as well) 2) A Case study of the top 10 (12) winter storms for Berks County was released, also the radar and satellite pages have been re-done, and that huge mess on the "models" page is being worked through, if you do go that page scroll down past the dashed lines to see what the format will be for it this winter...
 
Updates on this page will be fairly sparce as things of course are very early, I'm only updating today to give an ouline of whats been going on here and also cause I'm home from work recovering from the flu and what a flu it was... The were right summer time is definetly the worst flu... feel like 10 MACK trucks have hit me... anyway check out the changes to the site and if you have any questions hit me up on the contact page.