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Berks Winter Cast

06-07 Storm Intensity Threat Matrix

One of the things I've really looked at for this upcoming winter in regaurds to winter storm events is the fact that I looked at the weak El Nino that we are currently in and looked for similarites in the past not only in the current state but also the state of the ENSO that we exited to get to the current one... and that was a La Nina... and I went back to 1950, looked for varrying La Nina's into weak-mod El nino's



We will take a look at them all but as said in my winter forecast I thought the best matches for this upcoming winter would be 63-64, 86-87, and 02-03... Also included tho from this same scenerio tho are... 51-52, 57-58, 65-66, 72-73, and 76-77 (Only the winters of 72-73 and 76-77 did not appear on the list of top 70 snowstorms)

Here is what I came up with...





Of the years that I like best  for the forecast we had...

63-64 with 2 storms (1 significant and 1 major)
86-87 with 4 storms (3 notable and 1 major)
02-03 with 5 storms (2 notable, 1 signifcant, 1 major and 1 crippling)

These years accounted for 15.7% of storms for the top 70 list

The Blizzard of Feb 03... The strongest of the storms...
 
 
Lets take a look at those storms again but now seperated from the other years...
 
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From this I'm concluding that the general track this winter season will favor for the heaviest snow to be in the northern Mid-Atlantic up to Southen New England, also when it comes to  storms I don't think that there will be many changeover type storms (Of course there will be some) But I don't think it will be the theme of the winter...  As said in my winter forecast I really this year want to just take 86-87 and 02-03 and just mash them together.  I think this will lead to lot of storms and potential storms...
 
So here is the Winter Storm Intensity Outlook
 
Dec- Snowstorms possible but not extreme storms
two 4" type storms
 
Jan- Slow start goes off with a bang by the end of month
one 8" type storm
 
Feb- The Big one will be early, then a break, then back to winter
one 12" type storm (early) and one 6" type storm (late) 
 
March- Early and over and out
one 6" type storm
 
40" (38-44") Of snow for the Berks County Region
 
As said in my Winter Outlook I feel there is potential for more but I'm worried a surpressed track could push storms to the south but it will be an active year...
 
Obviously this last part where I guess where the storms will be is not an exact science its just looking at trends and some guess work... this is a first for the website so don't take it as lieteral... My Outlook is what I will grade myself in at the end of March not this Threat Matrix.