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Berks Winter Cast

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Well there isn't a whole lot to say about myself, but I will try.  I am 25 and work for Penske Truck Leasing, in telephone sales and also NEWLY apointed weather forecast consultant... Have been in love with weather as long as I can remember, especially winter storms... When Superstorm 93' came along I was only 11 but my fate was sealed with that storm, from there on I taught myself everything I could about winter and snowstorms, so by the time the Blizzard of 96' came along I could accurately forecast what was going to happen... not bad for a 14 year old... The next few winters really were weak compared to the winters that I fell in love with in the early and mid 90's it was at this time that I went deeper into the climatology behind what made winter patterns, by 2000 winter finally made a return.  It was that January, that I finaly got to use what I had learned.
 

Click Here To See Why I Created This Site

This storm had a huge impact on the forecasting community and for me on a personal level.  It was then that I decided to make this site... And it was launched in Nov 2000 for the following winter...  The blowout from the massive failure with the "surprise" storm the previous year, lead to a much more aggressive forecasting style for this next winter... And what a great winter it was... very active with many storms.  For that entire winter it was great to see forecasters speak their mind and take chances in their forecasts but just as the "surprise" storm  made them forecast better, it was only a matter of time before a MASSIVE "bust" in forecasting occured to make the forecasters go back to their "safe mode"... That bust occured later that year in March (a page devoted to that "forecasting bust" will be made in the near future)... It was this bust that lead to this presentation for forecasters to follow...

Click Here To See The New "Safe" Forecasting Strategy

What's sad to me is the fact that the presentation above was developed by one of the minds I respect most in the winter forecasting... Paul Kocin, but the "Bust of 2001" was particularly hard on him... I remmeber very clearly him on the weather channel saying that areas of PA and NJ were going to get 2-4 feet, instead it was more like 3-5 inches, some places in northern New England recieved the heavy amounts above 30 inches, as seen below...
 
 
The next winter was somewhat of a bust all around, as an El Nino that was supposed to form did not, so it was very warm and dry... The winter of 02-03' was very active and of course everyone remebers the Presidents Day Blizzard...
 
 
There was good forecasting for this storm but they did wait til 2 or 3 days before hand... It was forecasted on this site almost 10 days in advance...  Its that kind of service that I hope to provide to everyone that tunes in this year, I'm sure there will be ups and downs there always are... But one thing I guarentee is that you always be told the whole story and there will be no "safe" forecasting... I look forward to another exciting year and as always if you have an questions or comments feel free to email me anytime...